US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Feb 13/17:06 EST Feb 13

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 9 week                                

 Thursday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Feb09  Feb02  Jan26

 Weekly Claims   227k     220k to 232k                  --   234k   253k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 7,000 to in the February 9 week after a decline of 19,000 to a 

234,000 level in the previous week, still not recovering all of the 

sharp 53,000 gain in the January 26 week. The volatility in recent weeks 

can be largely attributed to seasonal adjustment issues around the 

holiday week, storms, teachers strikes, and the side effects of the 

government shutdown. The four-week moving average would rise further 

this week as the 212,000 level in the January 12 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

Retail and Food Sales for December (percent change)                       

 Thursday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Retail Sales   +0.1%     Flat to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +1.1%

 Ex-Mtr Veh      Flat    -0.2% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +1.0%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to increase by 0.1% in December 

after a 0.2% gain in November that masked solid underlying strength. Not 

seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales rose further in 

December, while AAA reported that gasoline prices fell further in 

mid-December from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to be 

flat excluding motor vehicles after a 0.2% gain in November due to weak 

gasoline station sales. Consumption started of strong in October, by 

waned later in the quarter. 

Producer Price Index for January (percent change)

 Thursday, February 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Final Demand     +0.1%    +0.1% to +0.6%               --  -0.1%  +0.1% 

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%               --   Flat  +0.3%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rebound by 0.1% in 

January after a revised 0.1% December decrease that was due in large 

part to a sharp energy decline. Energy prices are expected to rebound 

modestly following a 5.4% December decrease, though a further dip in 

energy prices is a downside factor, while food price growth is expected 

to slow after a 2.6% gain. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is 

forecast to rise 0.2% after a flat December reading. Annual revisions 

released on February 12 will be incorporated into the data.

Business Inventories for November (percent change)                      

 Thursday, February 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Inventories   +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.3%                --  +0.6%  +0.5%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.2% in 

November. Factory inventories were already reported as down 0.1% in the 

month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.3%, but the advance retail 

inventories number was not released due to the shutdown. As for sales, 

factory shipments fell 0.6% and wholesale sales were down 0.6%, while 

the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.3% increase, so the 

data suggest business sales were down 0.3% in the month pending any 

revision to retail trade sales. 

Empire State Index for February (diffusion index)

 Friday, February 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Empire Index      5.8       0.0 to 11.5                --    3.9   11.5

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to rebound to 5.8 in 

February after falling to 3.9 in January. The index has underperformed 

estimates in the last two months and remains only slightly above the 

breakeven point. 

Industrial Production for January (percent change)

 Friday, February 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Ind Prod      +0.2%     -0.2% to +0.2%                 --  +0.3%  +0.4% 

 Cap Util      78.8%     78.4% to 78.8%                 --  78.7%  78.6%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in January 

after a 0.3% rise in December. Factory payrolls rose by 13,000 in 

January, while auto production jobs rose by 1,000 and the factory 

workweek shortened slightly to 40.8 hours. The ISM production index 

rebounded sharply to 60.5 in the current month from 54.1 in the previous 

month. Utilities production is expected to partially rebound in the 

month after a 6.3% plunge in December, as temperatures returned to 

below-normal levels in January, in some cases to record lows. Mining 

production is forecast to dip after gain in the previous two months. 

Capacity utilization is forecast to rise slightly at 78.8% in December. 

University of Michigan Survey for February (preliminary)          

 Friday, February 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                Median        Range                 Feb19p  Jan19  Dec18

 Consumer Sent    93.0    92.0 to 95.0                  --   91.2   98.3

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rebound to a 

reading of 93.0 in early-February after plunging in January, due in 

large part to the resolution of the government shutdown. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]