US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

Durable Goods Orders for December (percent change)

 Thursday, February 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18 

 New Orders     +2.5%    +0.8% to 3.9%                  --  +0.7%  -4.3% 

 Ex-Transport   +0.3%    -0.7% to +1.8%                 --  -0.4%  +0.4%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 2.5% in 

December, as Boeing orders surged to 218 from 50 in November. However, 

durable goods orders are expected to rise by only 0.3% excluding the 

transportation component after a November decline. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 16 week                                

 Thursday, February 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Feb16  Feb09  Feb02

 Weekly Claims   220k     220k to 220k                  --   239k   235k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 19,000 to 220,000 in the February 16 employment survey week after an 

increase of 4,000 to a 239,000 level in the previous week, still not 

fully recovering from the spike in the January 26 week. Seasonal 

adjustment difficulties in January and February make claims an 

unreliable indicator. Claims were at level of 212,000 in the January 12 

employment survey week. The four-week moving average would rise by 5,000 

this week as the 200,000 level in the January 19 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. A pull-back in the average in the following week is very 

likely as the recent-high 253,000 level will then roll out. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for February (diffusion index)

 Thursday, February 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Phila Fed         15.0    12.0 to 18.0                 --   17.0    9.1

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall back to a 

reading of 15.0 in February after rising sharply to 17.0 in January. The 

Empire State index rose to 8.8 in February from 3.9 in January. 

Leading Indicators for January (percent change)

 Thursday, February 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:

                 Median         Range                Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Leading Index    +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%              --   -0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rebound by 

0.2% in January after a 0.1% decline in December. A rebound in stock 

prices and the ISM new orders index should be the key positive factors, 

offset by declining confidence and higher initial jobless claims that 

was impacted by the government shutdown, teacher strikes in California, 

cold weather in the Midwest, and seasonal adjustment difficulties. 

Delayed data from the Commerce Department will leave some holes in the 

Conference Board's source data. 

Existing-home Sales for January (annual rate)                           

 Thursday, February 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:

                 Median       Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Home Resales     4.95m  4.90m to 5.20m                 --  4.99m  5.33m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slow 

further to a 4.95 million annual rate in January after reversing sharply 

to 4.99 million in December, keeping sales below their year-ago levels. 

The January data will likely be negatively impacted by the government 

shutdown, as FHFA mortgage processing was halted and government 

employees were unpaid and unable to apply for mortgages. Pending home 

sales fell by 2.2% in December, a third consecutive decline and a 

negative indicator for existing home sales.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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