-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Construction Spending for December (percent change)
Monday, March 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec18 Nov18 Oct18
Construction +0.2% -0.4 to +1.0% -- +0.8% +0.1%
Comments: The value of construction spending is expected to rise by
only 0.2% in December, reflecting an expected soft reading in
residential construction that should be offset by stronger
nonresidential building. Housing starts plunged by 11.2% in the month, a
negative for residential construction activity.
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for February
Tuesday, March 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb19 Jan19 Dec18
ISM NMI 57.3 56.9 to 58.7 -- 56.7 58.0
Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to rise to
57.3 in February after falling to 56.7 in January. The Philadelphia Fed
nonmanufacturing index rose to 10.0, while the Dallas Services index
rose to 2.0 and the Markit Services index rose to 56.2.
New Home Sales for December (annual rate)
Tuesday, March 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec18 Nov18 Oct18
New Homes 590k 555k to 660k -- 657k 562k
Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to fall back to a
590,000 SAAR in December after a sharp gain in the previous month. This
is the first of three new home sales releases in March, as Commerce is
trying to catch up from the shutdown. The other two releases this month
are on March 14 (January data) and March 29 (February data).
Treasury Statement for January ($ billions)
Tuesday, March 5 at 2:00 p.m ET Actual:
Median Range Jan19 Dec18 Jan18
Balance +$4.0b +$2.0b to +$6.0b -- -$13.5b +$49.2b
Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $4.0 billion budget
surplus in the January tax month, much smaller than the $49.2 billion
surplus in January 2018. The February data will be released on March 22.
Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $)
Wednesday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec18 Nov18 Oct18
Trade Gap -$57.2b -$58.4b to -$50.8b -- -$49.3b -$55.7b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen sharply
to $57.2 billion in December from $49.3 billion in November. The GDP
data already showed that net exports were a larger subtraction from
fourth quarter growth than the previous quarter. The advance trade
report released on February 27 indicated that the census trade gap
widened sharply to $79.5 billion from $70.5 billion in the previous
month.
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 2 week
Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar02 Feb23 Feb16
Weekly Claims 225k 225k to 230k -- 225k 217k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold
steady around 225,000 in the March 2 week after an increase in the
previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 2,500 this
week as the 235,000 level in the February 2 week rolls out of the
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no
revisions.
Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)
Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 4Q18r 4Q18p 3Q18
Productivity +1.7% +1.5% to +2.0% -- NA +2.2%
Unit Labor Costs +1.7% +1.4% to +2.0% -- NA +0.9%
Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 1.7% in the
fourth quarter after a 2.2% gain in the third quarter, as the newly
release GDP data suggest that output growth slowed from the previous
quarter. Unit labor costs are expected to rise by 1.7% for the quarter
after a 0.9% increase in the third quarter.
Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions)
Thursday, March 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan19 Dec18 Nov18
Cons Cred +$16.8b +$16.0b to +$17.0b -- +$16.6b +$22.4b
Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $16.8 billion at
an annual rate in January, continuing a string of solid gains. Retail
sales data for January have not been released yet, but vehicle sales
were a bit softer.
Nonfarm Payrolls for February (change in thousands)
Friday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb19 Jan19 Dec18
Payrolls +183k +141k to +220k -- +304k +222k
Private Jobs +170k +134k to +222k -- +296k +206k
Jobless Rate 3.9% 3.7% to 4.0% -- 4.0% 3.9%
Hrly Earnings +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% -- +0.1% +0.4%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.5 to 34.5 -- 34.5 34.5
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 183,000 in
February after a much stronger-than-expected 304,000 rise in January.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 3.9% after rising
to 4.0% in the previous month. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise
0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for
another month.
Housing Starts for January (annual rate, million)
Friday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan19 Dec18 Nov18
Starts 1.178m 1.100m to 1.300m -- 1.078m 1.214m
Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to partially
rebound to a 1.178 million pace in January after slowing dramatically in
December. The Federal Government shutdown and the inability to process
government loans are both negatives risks for the month. Unadjusted
starts were down nearly 12% from a year earlier in December, a further
sign that home building has stagnated.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.