US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $)           

 Wednesday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                Dec18   Nov18   Oct18

 Trade Gap    -$57.2b  -$58.4b to -$50.8b             -- -$49.3b -$55.7b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen sharply 

to $57.2 billion in December from $49.3 billion in November. The GDP 

data already showed that net exports were a larger subtraction from 

fourth quarter growth than the previous quarter. The advance trade 

report released on February 27 indicated that the census trade gap 

widened sharply to $79.5 billion from $70.5 billion in the previous 

month. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 2 week                                

 Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Mar02  Feb23  Feb16

 Weekly Claims   225k     225k to 230k                  --   225k   217k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold 

steady around 225,000 in the March 2 week after an increase in the 

previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 2,500 this 

week as the 235,000 level in the February 2 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, revised (ann rate % change) 

 Thursday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                   Median           Range          4Q18r   4Q18p    3Q18

 Productivity       +1.7%      +1.5% to +2.0%         --      NA   +2.2% 

 Unit Labor Costs   +1.7%      +1.4% to +2.0%         --      NA   +0.9%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 1.7% in the 

fourth quarter after a 2.2% gain in the third quarter, as the newly 

release GDP data suggest that output growth slowed from the previous 

quarter. Unit labor costs are expected to rise by 1.7% for the quarter 

after a 0.9% increase in the third quarter. 

Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions)                   

 Thursday, March 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Jan19   Dec18   Nov18

 Cons Cred   +$16.8b +$16.0b to +$17.0b               -- +$16.6b +$22.4b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $16.8 billion at 

an annual rate in January, continuing a string of solid gains. Retail 

sales data for January have not been released yet, but vehicle sales 

were a bit softer. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for February (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Payrolls       +183k    +141k to +220k                 --  +304k  +222k

 Private Jobs   +170k    +134k to +222k                 --  +296k  +206k

 Jobless Rate    3.9%     3.7% to  4.0%                 --   4.0%   3.9%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.1%  +0.4%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to  34.5                 --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 183,000 in 

February after a much stronger-than-expected 304,000 rise in January. 

The unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 3.9% after rising 

to 4.0% in the previous month. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 

0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for 

another month. 

Housing Starts for January (annual rate, million) 

 Friday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Starts    1.178m      1.100m to 1.300m                 -- 1.078m 1.214m 

     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to partially 

rebound to a 1.178 million pace in January after slowing dramatically in 

December. The Federal Government shutdown and the inability to process 

government loans are both negatives risks for the month. Unadjusted 

starts were down nearly 12% from a year earlier in December, a further 

sign that home building has stagnated.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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