US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Factory Orders for January (percent change)                             

 Tuesday, March 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 New Orders     +0.3%    -0.6% to +1.5%                 --  +0.1%  -0.5%

 Ex Transport    --         -- to --                    --  -0.6%  -1.3%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.3% in January 

after a modest 0.1% gain in December. Durable goods orders were already 

reported as up 0.4%, while nondurable orders are expected to hold steady 

in the month after energy-related declines in the previous two months. 

Factory orders ex. transportation are expected to post only a modest 

January gain, based on a 0.1% decline in durables goods orders ex. 

transportation in the month. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 16 week                                

 Thursday, March 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Mar16  Mar09  Mar02

 Weekly Claims   225k     222k to 231k                  --   229k   233k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 4,000 to 225,000 in the March 16 employment survey week after an 

increase of 6,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average 

would rise by 2,000 this week as the 217,000 level in the February 16 

employment survey week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI 

forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for March (diffusion index)

 Thursday, March 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Phila Fed          6.0    -4.0 to 10.0                 --   -4.1   17.0

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rebound to a 

reading of 6.0 in March after falling to -4.1 in February. The Empire 

State index fell to 3.7 in March from 8.8 in February. 

Leading Indicators for February (percent change)

 Thursday, March 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                 Median         Range                Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Leading Index    +0.1%    -0.1% to +0.1%               --   Flat  -0.1%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 

0.1% in February after a revised flat reading in January. A jump in 

consumer expectations and an increase in stock prices should be the key 

positive factors, offset by a shorter factory workweek and a dip in the 

ISM new order reading. Delayed data from the Commerce Department will 

still leave some holes in the Conference Board's source data. 

Existing-home Sales for February (annual rate)                           

 Friday, March 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:

                 Median       Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Home Resales     5.10m  5.00m to 5.40m                 --  4.94m  5.00m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to rebound to 

a 5.10 million annual rate in February after a further decline in 

January. Pending home sales rebounded by 4.6% in January after six 

straight declines. 

Treasury Statement for February ($ billions)                           

 Friday, March 22 at 2:00 p.m. ET                        Actual:

             Median           Range              Feb19   Jan19    Feb18

 Balance   -$227.0b    -$230.0 to -$225.0           --  +$8.7b -$215.2b

     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $227.0 billion 

budget deficit in February, wider than the $215.2 billion deficit in 

February 2018. As a result, the 2019 fiscal year gap remains on track to 

eclipse the previous fiscal year's deficit by a wide margin.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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