US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Retail and Food Sales for May (percent change)                      

 Friday, June 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Retail Sales  +0.7%     +0.4% to +1.0%                 --  -0.2%  +1.7%

 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.4%     +0.1% to +0.7%                 --  +0.1%  +1.3%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rebound by 0.7% in May after 

a 0.2% decline in April. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle 

sales improved sharply in May. AAA reported that gasoline prices rose 

further in mid-May from one month earlier, but seasonal factors will 

likely offset that gain as the summer driving season started. Retail 

sales are expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.1% 

increase in April, but after gas, vehicles, and building materials are 

cut out, the control group should show little gain. 

Industrial Production for May (percent change)

 Friday, June 14 at 9:45 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median          Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Ind Prod     +0.2%      -0.1% to +0.5%                 --  -0.5%  +0.2% 

 Cap Util     78.0%      77.7% to 78.1%                 --  77.9%  78.5%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2% in May 

after a 0.5% decrease in March. Factory payrolls rose by 3,000 in May, 

as did auto production jobs, while the factory workweek was unchanged at 

40.6 hours. The ISM production index fell to 51.3 in the current month 

from 52.3 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to 

rebound in the month after a 3.5% decrease in April, led by increased 

utilities production. Mining production is forecast to decline after a 

1.6% rebound in the previous month. Capacity utilization is forecast to 

rise to 78.0% after falling to 77.9% in April. 

Business Inventories for April (percent change)                      

 Friday, June 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

              Median           Range                 Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Inventories   +0.5%      -0.1% to +0.6%                --   Flat  +0.3%

     Comments: The value of business inventories is expected to rise by 

0.5% in April, in line with an MNI calculation after the wholesale data. 

Factory inventories were up 0.3% in the month, while wholesale 

inventories rose 0.8% and the advance reading for retail inventories was 

a 0.5% gain. As for sales, factory shipments fell 0.5%, wholesale sales 

fell by 0.4%, and the advance estimate of retail trade sales was a 0.2% 

decline, adding up to a 0.4% decline for business sales before any 

retail sales revision. 

University of Michigan Survey for June (preliminary)          

 Friday, June 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:

                Median        Range                  Jun19p  May19 Apr19

 Consumer Sent    99.5    95.5 to 100.0                  --  100.0  97.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to fall slightly 

to a reading of 99.5 in June after rising to 100.0 in May.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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