US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 15 week                                

 Thursday, June 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jun15  Jun08  Jun01

 Weekly Claims  220k      215k to 230k                  --   222k   219k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 2,000 to 220,000 in the June 13 employment survey week after an 

increase to 222,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average 

would rise by 2,000 this week as the 212,000 level in the May 18 survey 

week rolls out of the calculation. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for June (diffusion index)

 Thursday, June 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Phila Fed        11.0      8.0 to 17.0                 --   16.6    8.5

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall back to a 

reading of 11.0 in June after jumping to 16.6 in May. 

Leading Indicators for May (percent change)

 Thursday, June 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                 Median         Range                May18  Apr18  Mar19

 Leading Index    +0.1%     Flat to +0.2%               --  +0.2%  +0.3%

     Comments: The leading index is expected to rise by only 0.1% in 

May, as a higher level of initial claims and falling stock prices should 

be offset by stronger consumer expectations and an increase in the ISM 

new orders index. 

Existing-home Sales for May (annual rate)                           

 Friday, June 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

                 Median       Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Home Resales     5.27m  5.10m to 5.50m                 --  5.19m  5.21m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to rebound to 

a 5.27 million annual rate in May after a slipping further to a 5.19 

million rate in April. Home sales remain well below their year ago 

levels despite some recent recovery, which the NAR blames on tight 

supply. The speed at which homes have been selling was at a record high 

in April, so increased supply should feed a rebound in the sales pace.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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