US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                       

Weekly Jobless Claims for July 6 week                                   

 Thursday, July 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul06  Jun29  Jun22

 Weekly Claims   221k     220k to 230k                  --   221k   229k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to stay  

at 221,000 in the July 6 holiday-shortened week after a decrease to     

8,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would be little

changed this week as the 222,000 level in the June 8 week rolls out of  

the calculation.                                                        

Consumer Price Index for June (percent change)                          

 Thursday, July 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Jun19  May19  Apr19

 CPI            Flat    -0.1% to +0.2%                  --  +0.1%  +0.3%

 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%                  --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to hold steady in June after a 0.1%  

gain in the previous month. Gasoline prices are expected to decline     

further, as suggested by the monthly AAA data. Food prices are expected 

to tick up further after posting a 0.3% gain in May. The core CPI is    

forecast to rise 0.2% following a string of 0.1% gains. The result      

should be a slight dip in the Y/Y rate for overall CPI to 1.7%, but no  

change to the 2.0% Y/Y rate for core CPI.                               

Treasury Statement for June ($ billions)                                

 Thursday, July 11 at 2:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        

             Median           Range              Jun19    May19    Jun18

 Balance     +$4.0b            --                   -- -$207.8b  -$74.9b

     Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $4.0 billion budget   

surplus in June, an improvement from the $74.9 billion gap in June 2018.

Outlays from June had shifted into May, resulting in the small June     

surplus rather than a gap.                                              

Producer Price Index for June (percent change)                          

 Friday, July 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Final Demand     +0.1%    -0.1% to +0.5%               --  +0.1%  +0.2%

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in June     

after a modest 0.1% May increase. Energy prices are expected to fall    

further, while food prices are expected to rise after falling in the    

previous two months. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast  

to rise 0.2% for a second straight month.                               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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