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Free AccessMNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Announces Raft Of Key Nominations
BRIEF: EU-Mercosur Deal In Final Negotiations - EC
US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 15/17:06 EST Jul 15
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Retail and Food Sales for June (percent change)
Tuesday, July 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19
Retail Sales +0.2% -0.1% to +0.3% -- +0.5% +0.3%
Ex-Mtr Veh +0.1% -0.1% to +0.4% -- +0.5% +0.5%
Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.2% in June after a
0.5% increase in May. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle
sales slowed in June, while AAA reported that gasoline prices slipped in
mid-May from one month earlier after four straight gains. Retail sales
are expected to rise 0.1% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.5% increase
in May.
Industrial Production for June (percent change)
Tuesday, July 16 at 9:45 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19
Ind Prod +0.1% -0.6% to +0.4% -- +0.4% -0.4%
Cap Util 78.1% 77.8% to 78.4% -- 78.1% 77.9%
Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% in June
after a 0.4% increase in May. Factory payrolls rose by 17,000 in June
while the factory workweek rose to 40.7 from 40.6 in May. The ISM
production index jumped to 54.1 in the current month from 51.3 in the
previous month and along with the other manufacturing data suggest a
modest uptick in factory production. However, utilities production is
expected to fall sharply in the month after a 2.1% increase in May, with
less electricity production the key factor. Mining production is
forecast to slip as well after a 0.1% gain in the previous month.
Capacity utilization is forecast to hold steady at 78.1%.
Business Inventories for May (percent change)
Tuesday, July 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range May19 Apr19 Mar19
Inventories +0.3% +0.3% to +0.5% -- +0.5% Flat
Comments: The value of business inventories is expected to rise by
0.3% in May, in line with an MNI calculation after the wholesale data.
Factory inventories were up 0.2% in the month, while wholesale
inventories rose 0.4% and the advance reading for retail inventories was
a 0.5% gain. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.1%, wholesale sales
rose by 0.1%, and the advance estimate of retail trade sales was a 0.5%
increase, adding up to a 0.2% increase for business sales before any
retail sales revision.
Housing Starts for June (annual rate, million)
Wednesday, July 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19
Starts 1.260m 1.230m to 1.290m -- 1.269m 1.281m
Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to decline further
to a 1.260 million pace in June after falling to 1.269 million in May,
while building permits are expected to rise very slightly to a 1.300
million pace from the 1.299 million revised May rate. Unadjusted starts
were down 4.0% from a year earlier in May.
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 13 week
Thursday, July 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul13 Jul06 Jun29
Weekly Claims 216k 210k to 220k -- 209k 221k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to
rebound by 7,000 to 216,000 in the July 13 employment survey week after
a decrease to 209,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average
would decline very slightly this week as the 217,000 level in the June
15 employment survey week rolls out of the calculation.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for July (diffusion index)
Thursday, July 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul19 Jun19 May19
Phila Fed 5.0 0.0 to 7.0 -- 0.3 16.6
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rebound to a
reading of 5.0 in July after plunging to 0.3 in June.
Leading Indicators for June (percent change)
Thursday, July 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun18 May18 Apr18
Leading Index +0.1% Flat to +0.1% -- Flat +0.1%
Comments: The leading index is expected to rise by only 0.1% in
June, with positive contributions from stronger stock prices and a
slightly longer factory workweek and negative factors from a sharp drop
in consumer expectations and higher jobless claims.
University of Michigan Survey for July (preliminary)
Friday, July 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul19p Jun19 May19
Consumer Sent 98.7 98.0 to 99.7 -- 98.2
100.0
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a
reading of 98.7 in early-July from 98.2 in June.
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.