Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 15/17:06 EST Jul 15
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.                                                       
Retail and Food Sales for June (percent change)                         
 Tuesday, July 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Retail Sales   +0.2%    -0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.5%  +0.3%
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.1%    -0.1% to +0.4%                 --  +0.5%  +0.5%
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.2% in June after a   
0.5% increase in May. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle    
sales slowed in June, while AAA reported that gasoline prices slipped in
mid-May from one month earlier after four straight gains. Retail sales  
are expected to rise 0.1% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.5% increase
in May.                                                                 
Industrial Production for June (percent change)                         
 Tuesday, July 16 at 9:45 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
              Median          Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Ind Prod      +0.1%     -0.6% to +0.4%                 --  +0.4%  -0.4%
 Cap Util      78.1%     77.8% to 78.4%                 --  78.1%  77.9%
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% in June   
after a 0.4% increase in May. Factory payrolls rose by 17,000 in June   
while the factory workweek rose to 40.7 from 40.6 in May. The ISM       
production index jumped to 54.1 in the current month from 51.3 in the   
previous month and along with the other manufacturing data suggest a    
modest uptick in factory production. However, utilities production is   
expected to fall sharply in the month after a 2.1% increase in May, with
less electricity production the key factor. Mining production is        
forecast to slip as well after a 0.1% gain in the previous month.       
Capacity utilization is forecast to hold steady at 78.1%.               
Business Inventories for May (percent change)                           
 Tuesday, July 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:       
              Median           Range                 May19  Apr19  Mar19
 Inventories   +0.3%      +0.3% to +0.5%                --  +0.5%   Flat
     Comments: The value of business inventories is expected to rise by 
0.3% in May, in line with an MNI calculation after the wholesale data.  
Factory inventories were up 0.2% in the month, while wholesale          
inventories rose 0.4% and the advance reading for retail inventories was
a 0.5% gain. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.1%, wholesale sales 
rose by 0.1%, and the advance estimate of retail trade sales was a 0.5% 
increase, adding up to a 0.2% increase for business sales before any    
retail sales revision.                                                  
Housing Starts for June (annual rate, million)                          
 Wednesday, July 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:      
           Median            Range                   Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Starts    1.260m      1.230m to 1.290m                 -- 1.269m 1.281m
     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to decline further
to a 1.260 million pace in June after falling to 1.269 million in May,  
while building permits are expected to rise very slightly to a 1.300    
million pace from the 1.299 million revised May rate. Unadjusted starts 
were down 4.0% from a year earlier in May.                              
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 13 week                                  
 Thursday, July 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul13  Jul06  Jun29
 Weekly Claims   216k     210k to 220k                  --   209k   221k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       
rebound by 7,000 to 216,000 in the July 13 employment survey week after 
a decrease to 209,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average
would decline very slightly this week as the 217,000 level in the June  
15 employment survey week rolls out of the calculation.                 
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for July (diffusion index)           
 Thursday, July 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Phila Fed          5.0     0.0 to 7.0                  --    0.3   16.6
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rebound to a   
reading of 5.0 in July after plunging to 0.3 in June.                   
Leading Indicators for June (percent change)                            
 Thursday, July 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
                 Median         Range                Jun18  May18  Apr18
 Leading Index    +0.1%     Flat to +0.1%               --   Flat  +0.1%
     Comments: The leading index is expected to rise by only 0.1% in    
June, with positive contributions from stronger stock prices and a      
slightly longer factory workweek and negative factors from a sharp drop 
in consumer expectations and higher jobless claims.                     
University of Michigan Survey for July (preliminary)                    
 Friday, July 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
                Median        Range                  Jul19p  Jun19 May19
 Consumer Sent    98.7    98.0 to 99.7                   --   98.2      
100.0                                                                   
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a    
reading of 98.7 in early-July from 98.2 in June.                        
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_ACTIVE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); });