US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 22/17:06 EST Jul 22

WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming U.S.

economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI weekly survey. The

comment section presents the key elements behind the median forecasts.

     Existing-home Sales for June (annual rate) Tuesday, July 23 at 10:00 a.m.

ET Actual: Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19 Home Resales 5.34m 5.24m to 5.40m --

5.34m 5.21m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to hold steady at a

5.34 million annual rate in June. Home sales remain well below their year ago

levels despite some recent recovery, which the NAR blames on tight supply. The

speed at which homes have been selling remains very fast.

     New Home Sales for June (annual rate) Wednesday, July 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET

Actual: Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19 New Homes 660k 582k to 686k -- 626k 679k

     Comments: The pace of new home sales is expected to partially rebound to a

660,000 SAAR in June after dipping to 626,000 in May. Home sales were below

their year-ago level in May.

     Weekly Jobless Claims for July 20 week Thursday, July 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET

Actual: Median Range Jul20 Jul13 Jul06 Weekly Claims 220k 210k to 222k -- 216k

208k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 4,000

to 220,000 in the July 20 week after a partial rebound to 216,000 in the

previous week. The four-week moving average would decline further this week as

the 229,000 level in the June 22 week rolls out of the calculation.

     Durable Goods Orders for June (percent change) Thursday, July 25 at 8:30

a.m. ET Actual: Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19 New Orders +0.8% -1.5% to +1.5%

-- -1.3% -2.8% Ex-Transport +0.2% -0.1% to +0.7% -- +0.3% -0.1%

     Comments: The pace of durable goods orders is expected to rise by 0.8% in

May after falling in the previous two months on continued declines for aircraft.

Boeing still only reported nine new orders in June, only slightly ahead of the

report of no new orders in May. Cancellations remain a factor too, so the

transportation component should remain a drag on the headline number going

forward despite a modest June uptick. Orders are expected to rise by 0.2%

outside of the transportation component.

     GDP for Second Quarter (advance estimate) Friday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET

Actual: Median Range 2Q19a 1Q19 4Q18 GDP +1.8% +1.2% to +2.8% -- +3.1% +2.2%

Chain Prices +1.9% +1.4% to +2.3% -- +0.9% +1.7%

     Comments: Analysts see a 1.8% increase for second quarter GDP in the

advance estimate, much slower than the 3.1% gain in the first quarter. The key

factors are expected to be a wider trade gap and slower inventory build, with

fixed investment roughly flat. The PCE component, however is expected to show

significant acceleration after a softer first quarter. The chain price index is

expected to rise by 1.9% in the second quarter after a 0.9% gain in the previous

quarter. Annual revisions will be released with this week's data.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]