US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                       

Treasury Statement for July ($ billions)                                

 Monday, August 12 at 2:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        

            Median             Range             Jul19    Jun19   Jul18 

Balance   -$120.0b     -$123.0b to -$97.0B          --   -$8.5b -$76.9b 

     Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $120.0 billion budget 

gap in July, up sharply from the $76.9 billion gap in July 2018.        

Consumer Price Index for July (percent change)                          

 Tuesday, August 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

            Median             Range                Jul19   Jun19  May19

 CPI         +0.3%        +0.1% to +0.3%               --   +0.1%  +0.1%

 CPI Core    +0.2%        +0.1% to +0.4%               --   +0.3%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% in July after a 0.1% 

gain in the previous month. Gasoline prices are expected to rebound     

slightly, as suggested by the monthly AAA data and the gasoline reading 

in the PPI report. Food prices are expected to tick higher after posting

a flat reading in June. The core CPI is forecast to rise only 0.2%      

following a 0.3% jump in the previous month.                            

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 10 week                                

 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:      

               Median         Range                  Aug10  Aug03  Jul27

 Weekly Claims   215k      211k to 215k                 --   209k   217k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound to 215,000 in the August 10 week after a decline of 8,000 to    

209,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would tick   

down only slightly this week as the 216,000 level in the July 13 week   

rolls out of the calculation.                                           

Retail and Food Sales for July (percent change)                         

 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Retail Sales   +0.3%     0.0% to +0.4%               --    +0.4%  +0.4%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.4%    +0.2% to +0.6%               --    +0.4%  +0.4%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% in June after a

0.4% increase in June. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle   

sales were unchanged in July, while AAA reported that gasoline prices   

ticked up slightly in mid-June after a May dip. Retail sales are        

expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles, the same as the June    

increase.                                                               

Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)

 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:     

                   Median           Range          2Q19p    1Q19    4Q18

 Productivity       +1.5%      +1.0% to +2.1%         --   +3.4%   +1.3%

 Unit Labor Costs   +1.9%      +1.2% to +3.3%         --   -1.6%   -0.4%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by only 1.5% in 

the second quarter after a 3.4% surge in the previous quarter, based on 

the slower GDP growth reported for the quarter. Unit labor costs are    

expected to rise by 1.9% as a result following declines in the previous 

two quarters.                                                           

Empire State Index for August (diffusion index)                         

 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Aug19  Jul19  Jun19

Empire Index        3.0    -2.0 to +11.2                --    4.3   -8.6

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to slip back modestly 

to a reading of 3.0 in August after rebounding to 4.3 in July.          

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for August (diffusion index)         

 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Aug19  Jul19  Jun19

 Phila Fed         10.0     5.0 to 16.4                 --   21.8    0.3

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a      

reading of 10.0 in August after surging to 21.8 in July.                

Industrial Production for July (percent change)                         

 Thursday, August 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Ind Prod      +0.1%     -0.3% to +0.5%                 --   Flat  +0.4%

 Cap Util      77.9%     77.5% to 78.4%                 --  77.9%  78.1%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.1% in July

after a flat reading in June. Manufacturing production is likely to be  

modest, based on the employment data. Factory payrolls rose by 16,000 in

July, while auto production jobs rose by 10,000, but the factory        

workweek was narrowed to 40.4 hours from 40.7 hours in June. The ISM    

production index fell to 50.8 in the current month from 54.1 in the     

previous month. Utilities production is expected to partially rebound in

the month after a sharp 3.6% decrease in the previous month, while      

mining production is forecast to hold steady after a 0.2% gain in the   

previous month, with the impact from Hurricane Barry the wild card.     

Business Inventories for June (percent change)                          

 Thursday, August 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Inventories   +0.2%       Unch to +0.3%                --  +0.3%  +0.5%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.2%. An MNI

projection after the release of wholesale inventories suggested a flat  

reading, so the median forecast suggests an expected upward revision to 

retail inventories. Wholesale inventories were flat in the month, while 

factory inventories rose 0.2% and the advance reading for retail        

inventories was a 0.1% decline. For sales, advance retail sales rose    

0.4% in June, while factory shipments rose 0.4%, and wholesale sales    

fell 0.3%, projecting a 0.2% gain for business sales pending any        

revision to the retail data.                                            

Housing Starts for July (annual rate, million)                          

 Friday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Starts    1.257m      1.205m to 1.300m                 -- 1.253m 1.265m

     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to move only      

modestly higher to a 1.257 million annual rate after slowing to 1.253   

million in June. The NAHB index ticked up modestly in the month. Starts 

were modestly above their year ago levels, but permits were down        

sharply, an indication that home building remains sluggish.             

University of Michigan Survey for August (preliminary)                  

 Friday, August 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:     

                Median        Range                  Aug19p  Jul19 Jun19

Consumer Sent     96.9    98.9 to 94.8                   --   98.4  98.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to fall to a    

96.9 reading in early-August after rising to 98.4 in July. Trade war    

concerns are likely to weigh on sentiment, particularly the resulting   

plunge in stock prices.                                                 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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