US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

 WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for 

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI 

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

     Durable Goods for July (percent change)

 Monday, August 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median            Range                Jul19  Jun19  May19 

Orders         +1.0%         -1.10% to +3.00%         --   +2.0%  -2.3% 

ex. trans      Flat          -0.5% to +0.5%           --   +1.0%  +0.4%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 1.0% in July 

after a 2.0% increase in June. A bump in Boeing orders is projected to 

drive order growth. Core durables are expected to fall due to a weakness 

in business investment and manufacturing output. 

     Conference Board Consumer Confidence for July (index)

 Tuesday, August 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median            Range               July19  Jun19  May19

 Confidence    128.0          125.0 to 133.5          --    135.7  124.3

          Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to drop to a 

reading of 128 in July after a sharp rebound in June. A potential 

recession has instilled fear in consumers, resulting in a slight 

slowdown. 

     GDP for Second Quarter (second estimate)

 Thursday, August 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median        Range                   2Q19s  2Q19a   1Q19

 GDP            +2.0%    +1.8% to +2.1%                --  +2.1%   +3.1% 

          Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to be revised down to a 

2.0% rate from the 2.1% gain in the advance estimate. 

     Personal Income for July (percent change)                          

 Friday, August 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:     

              Median          Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Income        +0.3%     +0.1% to +0.5%                --   +0.4%  +0.4% 

 Spending      +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.6%                --   +0.3%  +0.5%

 Core Prices   +0.2%      Flat to +0.3%                --   +0.2%  +0.2%

          Comments: Personal income is expected to post a 0.3% increase in 

July. The relative steadiness may be attributed to a strong labor market 

and relatively high consumer activity despite recession fears. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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