US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

{US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts>}

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for 

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI 

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

     Sep Markit Manufacturing Index (index) 

 Monday, September 23 at 9:45 a.m. ET                            Actual:        

              Median                             Sep19  Aug19  Jul19

 Index        50.3                               --      50.3  50.4

          Comments: The Markit Manufacturing Index is projected to remain 

flat amid low business investment and dismal manufacturing numbers.  

     Sep Markit Services Index (index) 

 Monday, September 23 at 9:45 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median                              Sep19  Aug19  Jul19

 Index         51.4                                 --   50.7   53.0

          Comments: The Markit Services Index is projected to accelerate to 

51.4 from 50.7 in August after a slight dip from July. 

     Sep Conference Board Confidence (index) 

 Tuesday, September 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median                              Sep19  Aug19  Jul19

 Index         133.0                                 --   135.1  135.8 

          Comments: The Conference Board Confidence Index is projected to 

come in at 133.0, a bit slower than 135.0 and 135.8 seen in August and 

July, respectively.   

August New Home Sales (thousands)  

 Wednesday, September 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:               

             Median                             Aug19  Jul19  Jun19

 Index        656k                                --     635k  646k

          Comments: New home sales look to increase to 656,000 in August 

from 635,000 in August. This could speak to increased inventory to 

satiate growing demand for housing, as well as the historically low 

mortgage rates in the U.S. 

     September Jobless Claims (thousands) 

 Thursday, September 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median                             Sep21  Sep14  Sep7

 Index         211k                               --     208k  204k

          Comments:  Jobless claims are expected to increase to 211,000 in 

week 3 of September 2019, continuing the slight acceleration seen in the 

past two weeks. These numbers are not rising substantially, however, and 

still remain low compared to the claims recorded for August 2019. 

     Second Quarter GDP  

 Thursday, September 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median                             Q219f   Q219p   Q119f

 GDP           +2.0%                             --     +2.0%    +3.1%

 Price Index   +2.4%                             --     +2.4%    +1.1%

          Comments: The Quarter 2 GDP is anticipated to remain unchanged from 

the projected 2.0% increase. Similarly, the GDP price Index for Quarter 

2 is also expected to remain at an increase of 2.4%. 

August Advance Goods Trade Gap (billions) 

 Thursday, September 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median                              Aug19  Jul19  Jun19

Gap           -$73.4b                             --   -$72.3b -$75.1b

          Comments: The August advance trade deficit for goods is projected 

to widen to -$73.4 billion in August from a July reading of -%72.3 

billion. This comes amid trade tensions with China and other 

geopolitical challenges. 

August Wholesale Inventories (index) 

 Thursday, August 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median                             Aug19  Jul19  Jun19

 Index         0.2%                               --     0.2%   Flat

          Comments: Wholesale inventories for August are expected to remain 

unchanged from the 0.2% rise seen in July.

     Aug Durable Goods New Orders 

 Friday, September 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median                             Aug19  Jul19  Jun19

 Index        -1.2%                                --   +2.0% +1.8%

 ex-trans:    +0.3%                                --   -0.4% +0.8%

     Comments: Durable goods new orders are expected to decrease by 1.2% 

after strong increases seen in both July and June. Excluding transport, 

however, the durable orders are slated to accelerate by 0.3%. 

Aug Personal Income PCE Index

 Monday, September 23 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                   Median                           Aug19  Jul19 Jun19

Pers Income         +0.4%                            --    +0.1% +0.1%

Curr Dollar:        +0.3%                            --    +0.6% +0.3%

Total PCE:          +0.1%                            --    +0.2% +0.1%

Core PCE:           +0.2%                            --    +0.2% +0.2%

     Comments:  August Personal Wage Growth is anticipated to rise 

across all categories, including personal income, current dollar 

spending, total PCE, and core PCE. These optimistic numbers are likely 

due to strong consumer confidence and steady wage growth. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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