US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 9/16:06 EST Oct 9

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 7 week                                

 Thursday, October 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                  Median         Range               Oct07  Sep30  Sep23

 Weekly Claims     252k        250k to 275k             --   260k   272k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 8,000 to 252,000 in the October 7 week after a 12,000 decease in the 

previous week. The levels of initial and continuing filings remain      

elevated, particularly in the hurricane-impacted regions, but should    

trend lower as those impacts begin to level the data. The four-week     

moving average would fall by 7,250 in the coming week as the 281,000    

level in the September 9 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the

MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                     

Producer Price Index for September (percent change)                     

 Thursday, October 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Final Demand     +0.4%     +0.2% to +0.6%              --  +0.2%  -0.1%

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%              --  +0.1%  -0.1%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.4% in September   

after softer-than-expected readings in August. The impact of the        

hurricanes should again be seen in energy prices, particularly gasoline 

prices, while food prices are expected to rebound after a substantial   

1.3% drop in August. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast  

to post a 0.2% gain after a below-expectation 0.1% increase in the      

previous month.                                                         

Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)                           

 Thursday, October 12 at 2:00 p.m. ET (date may change)  Actual:        

             Median           Range              Sep17    Aug17    Sep16

 Balance     -$1.5b      -$3.0b to Flat             -- -$107.7b  +$33.5b

     Comments: The Treasury statement for September, and FY 2017, should

show some deterioration from the previous year. For September           

specifically, a shift in transfer payments from October and outlays for 

hurricane-relief should be significant factors that will offset tax     

receipts. Analysts expect a $1.5 billion deficit for the September tax  

month, down from a $33.5 billion surplus in September 2016.             

Retail and Food Sales for September (percent change)                    

 Friday, October 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median       Range                    Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Retail Sales   +1.9%    +1.4% to +2.7%                 --  -0.2%  +0.3%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.9%    +0.7% to +1.9%                 --  +0.2%  +0.4%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rebound by 1.9% in          

September, due to both a strong recovery in vehicle sales and           

hurricane-related increase in gasoline prices, as AAA reported that     

gasoline prices rose solidly in mid-September from one month earlier.   

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.9% excluding motor vehicles after   

August's modest 0.2% gain, owing mostly to the gasoline jump and to     

building materials sales after the storms.                              

Consumer Price Index for September (percent change)                     

 Friday, October 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 CPI           +0.6%     +0.5% to +0.7%                 --  +0.4%  +0.1%

 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.6% in September following a

0.4% energy-related rise in August. Analysts expect energy prices to    

move even higher after August's 2.8% surge, as the hurricanes impact,   

particularly on gasoline, continued. The core CPI is forecast to rise   

0.2% for a second straight month.                                       

Business Inventories for August (percent change)                        

 Friday, October 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Inventories   +0.7%       +0.4% to +0.8%               --  +0.2%  +0.5%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.7% in August.

Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.4% in the month, while

wholesale inventories rose 0.9% and the advance report pointed to a 0.7%

gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks   

for a 0.7% increase for business inventories, in line with the median   

forecast. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.5% and wholesale    

sales surged by 1.7%, while retail trade sales fell 0.3% in the advance 

retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.7% rise in        

business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales      

number.                                                                 

University of Michigan Survey for October (preliminary)                 

 Friday, October 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Oct17p  Sep17  Aug17

 Consumer Sent    95.5     94.0 to 97.0                 --   95.1   95.3

     Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to

rise modestly to a reading of 95.5 in early-October from 95.1 in        

September, as the impact of the hurricanes appears to be smaller than   

previously expected.                                                    

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com