US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 27/16:06 EST Oct 27

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

Personal Income for September (percent change)                           

 Monday, October 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:         

              Median          Range                  Sep17  Aug17  Jul17 

 Income        +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.4%                 --  +0.2%  +0.3% 

 Spending      +0.9%     +0.7% to +1.1%                 --  +0.1%  +0.3% 

 Core Prices   +0.1%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1% 

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in September, 

as payrolls fell by 33,000, but average weekly hours held steady at 34.4 

hours and hourly earnings surged by 0.5%. Current dollar PCE is forecast 

to jump 0.9%, as retail sales surged 1.6% in the month and were still up 

1.0% excluding a 3.6% spike in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales    

(also ex. gas) were up 0.5% in the month, while sales excluding autos,   

gas, building materials and food services up 0.4%, indicating underlying 

strength. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.1% gain in    

September, reflecting steady core CPI data. The year/year gain should    

remain below 2%.                                                         

Employment Cost Index for Third Quarter (percent change)                 

 Tuesday, October 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:         

                 Median       Range                   3Q17   2Q17   1Q17 

 Construction     +0.7%     -0.6% to +0.8%              --  +0.5%  +0.8% 

     Comments: The ECI is expected to rise by 0.7% in the third quarter  

after a 0.5% gain in the second quarter. Analysts will watch the         

year/year rate closely to see if it moved off the 2.4% rate seen in the  

previous two quarters.                                                   

MNI Chicago Report for October (index)                                   

 Tuesday, October 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                     Actual:         

              Median        Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 

 MNI Chicago    59.9     58.0 to 61.0                   --   65.2   58.9 

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slide back to a        

reading of 59.9 in October after rising sharply to 65.2 in September.    

Other regional data already released, however, suggest that growth       

accelerated in those areas.                                              

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for October (index)                 

 Tuesday, October 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:         

              Median            Range                Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 

 Confidence    120.9        119.5 to 123.0              --  119.8  120.4 

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound   

to a reading of 120.9 in October after a small dip to 119.8 in           

September. The Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 100.7 in October from    

95.1 in the previous month.                                                     

     ISM Manufacturing Index for October                                      

 Wednesday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:         

              Median       Range                     Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 

 Mfg ISM        59.5    58.0 to 61.0                    --   60.8   58.8 

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a      

reading of 59.5 in October after rising to a recent peak of 60.8 in      

September despite the hurricanes that month. Regional conditions have    

suggested stronger growth                                                

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 28 week                                

 Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:         

                  Median         Range               Oct28  Oct21  Oct14 

 Weekly Claims      235k      235k to 238k              --   233k   223k 

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise   

by 2,000 to 235,000 in the October 28 week after a 10,000 increase in    

the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 5,750 in   

the coming week as the 258,000 level in the September 30 week, the last  

of the true hurricane-impacted weeks, drops out of the calculation,      

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.         

Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)  

 Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:         

                   Median         Range              3Q17p   2Q17   1Q17 

 Productivity       +2.9%    +2.3% to +3.5%             --  +1.5%  +0.1% 

 Unit Labor Costs   +0.6%    +0.0% to +1.0%             --  +0.2%  +4.8% 

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 2.9% in the      

third quarter after a 1.5% gain in the previous quarter, as output       

growth was close to steady, but hours worked growth slowed. Unit labor   

costs are expected to rise by 0.6% following a modest 0.2% gain in the   

second quarter.                                                          

Nonfarm Payrolls for October (change in thousands)                       

 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 

 Payrolls       308k       +200k to +350k               --   -33k  +169k 

 Private Job    310k       +260k to +340k               --   -40k  +164k 

 Jobless Rate   4.2%        4.2% to 4.4%                --   4.2%   4.4% 

 Hrly Earnings +0.2%        Flat to +0.3%               --  +0.5%  +0.2% 

 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.4        34.4 to 34.5                --   34.4   34.4 

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 308,000 in       

October after September's hurricane-impacted 33,000 decline, while the   

unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Hourly earnings    

are forecast to rise by only 0.2% after a 0.5% surge in the previous     

month, but the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 hours for    

the fourth straight month.                                               

Trade in Goods and Services for September (deficit, billion $)           

 Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:         

              Median           Range               Sep17   Aug17   Jul17 

 Trade Gap   -$43.5b      -$44.0b to -$43.4b          -- -$42.4b -$43.6b 

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $43.5 

billion in September. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap 

widened to $64.1 billion, with exports up 0.7% and imports up 0.9%       

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for October                                  

 Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:         

              Median        Range                    Oct17  Sep17  Aug17 

 ISM NMI        58.0    57.0 to 59.0                    --   59.8   55.3 

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a   

reading of 58.0 in October after another increase to 59.8 in September.  

The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell slightly to 32.2, but       

remained strong, while the flash Markit services index ticked up to 55.9 

in the month from 55.3 in September.                                     

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]