US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 1/15:06 EST Dec 1

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

Factory Orders for October (percent change)                             

 Monday, December 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median             Range               Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 New Orders    -0.3%        -0.5% to +0.6%              --  +1.4%  +1.2%

 Ex Transport   --               ---                    --  +0.7%  +0.6%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.3% in October.  

Durable goods orders fell 1.2% in the month on a drop in aircraft       

orders, while nondurables orders are expected to rise only modestly as  

energy prices were flat. Factory orders are expected to post a modest   

increase excluding the transportation component. Durable orders         

excluding transportation rose 0.4% in the advance estimate.             

Trade in Goods and Services for October (deficit, billion $)            

 Tuesday, December 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       

              Median           Range               Oct17   Sep17   Aug17

 Trade Gap   -$46.7b      -$47.7b to -$43.4b          -- -$43.5b -$42.8b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $46.7

billion in October from $43.5 billion in September. The advance estimate

of the Census goods trade gap widened sharply to $68.3 billion, with    

exports down 1.0% and imports up 1.5%.                                  

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November                                

 Tuesday, December 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 ISM NMI        59.0     58.0 to 59.6                   --   60.1   59.8

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to pull back  

to a reading of 59.0 in November after another increase to 60.1 in      

October. The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell sharply to 19.3,  

while the flash Markit Services index ticked down to 54.7.              

Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)     

 Wednesday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

                   Median           Range            3Q17r  3Q17p   2Q17

 Productivity       +3.3%      +2.9% to +3.5%           --  +3.0%  +1.5%

 Unit Labor Costs   +0.3%      -0.2% to +0.5%           --  +0.5%  +0.3%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up to a   

3.3% pace of growth on the upwardly revised output data. Unit labor cost

growth is expected to be revised down to a 0.3% rate.                   

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 2 week                               

 Thursday, December 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Dec02  Nov25  Nov18

 Weekly Claims     241k      240k to 245k               --   238k   240k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 3,000 to 241,000 in the December 2 post-holiday week after a decrease

of 2,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise  

by only 500 in the coming week as the 239,000 level in the November 4   

week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 

and there are no revisions.                                             

Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions)                   

 Thursday, December 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:     

              Median           Range               Oct17   Sep17   Aug17

 Cons Cred   +$16.2b     +$15.0b to +$18.0b           -- +$20.8b +$13.1b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $16.2 billion in  

October after a $20.8 billion jump in September. Retail sales rose 0.2% 

and were still up 0.1% excluding a 0.7% increase in motor vehicle sales.

Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, December 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Payrolls       +204k      +170k to +250k               --  +261k   +18k

 Private Job    +200k      +170k to +245k               --  +252k   +15k

 Jobless Rate    4.1%       4.0% to 4.2%                --   4.1%   4.2%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.3%               --   Flat  +0.5%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4       34.4 to 34.4                --   34.4   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 204,000 in      

November after hurricane-related fluctuations in September and October, 

while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% in       

October. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.2% after a flat      

October reading and a 0.5% surge in September, and the average workweek 

is expected to continue at 34.4 hours, where it has been for the last   

four months.                                                            

University of Michigan Survey for December (preliminary)                

 Friday, December 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median           Range              Dec17p  Nov17  Oct17

 Consumer Sent    98.9        97.0 to 102.0             --   98.5   97.8

     Comments: The Michigan sentiment index rise slightly to a reading  

of 98.9 in early December from 98.5 in November.                        

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com