US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Mar 29/16:06 EST Mar 29

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

ISM Manufacturing Index for March                                       

 Monday, April 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Mfg ISM       59.5        58.8 to 63.6                 --   60.8   59.1

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to slide to a    

reading of 59.5 in March after rising modestly to 60.8 in February.     

Regional conditions data, including the MNI Chicago report, suggested   

growth slowed modestly, but remained fairly strong.                     

Construction Spending for February (percent change)                     

 Monday, April 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Construction  +0.5%      +0.3% to +0.8%                --   Flat  +0.8%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.5% in     

February. Housing starts declined sharply in the month, suggesting      

private residential building pulled back after a 0.3% gain in the       

previous month.                                                         

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for March (mln units, saar)                

 Tuesday, April 3                                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Dom Sales     12.9m      12.9m to 12.9m                --  12.8m  12.8m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to rise slightly

to a 12.9 million annual rate in March after holding roughly steady in  

February after seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment factors will    

subtract considerably from March sales after adding to them in February.

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for March                                   

 Wednesday, April 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 ISM NMI     59.0        58.6 to 60.0                   --   59.5   59.9

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline    

further to a reading of 59.0 in March from 59.5 in February. The        

Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell modestly to 30.1, while the    

flash Markit Services index slipped to 54.1.                            

Factory Orders for February (percent change)                            

 Wednesday, April 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median             Range               Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 New Orders   +1.6%          +1.3% to +1.9%             --  -1.4%  +1.8%

 Ex Transport +1.3%          +1.3% to +1.3%             --  +0.4%  +0.9%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.6% in February. 

Durable goods orders jumped by 3.1% in the month on a surge in aircraft 

orders, but nondurables orders are expected to be negatively impacted by

soft energy prices. Factory orders are forecast to rise 1.3% excluding  

the transportation component. Durable orders excluding transportation   

rose by 1.2%.                                                           

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 31 week                                 

 Thursday, April 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Mar31  Mar24  Mar17

 Weekly Claims   224k        222k to 225k               --   215k   227k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 9,000 to 224,000 in the March 31 week after a 12,000 decrease

in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment in the early spring is        

difficult due to the timing of holidays. The four-week moving average   

would fall by 1,500 in the coming week, as the 230,000 level in the     

March 3 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is 

correct and there are no revisions.                                     

Trade in Goods and Services for February (deficit, billion $)           

 Thursday, April 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:          

              Median        Range                  Feb18   Jan18   Dec17

 Trade Gap    -$56.8   -$57.6 to -$55.7               -- -$56.6b -$53.9b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen only    

slightly to $56.8 billion in February from a $56.6 billion gap in       

January. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened     

modestly to $75.4 billion, with exports up 2.2% and imports up 1.4%.    

Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands)                        

 Friday, April 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Payrolls      +190k      +130k to +250k                --  +313k  +239k

 Private Job   +198k      +155k to +205k                --  +287k  +238k

 Jobless Rate  4.0%        4.0% to 4.1%                 --   4.1%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.2%                --  +0.1%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs  34.5        34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in March

after a much stronger-than-expected 313,000 jump in February. The       

unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0% after holding steady at    

4.1% in recent months. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.2%     

after a 0.1% gain, while the average workweek is expected to stay at    

34.5 hours.                                                             

Consumer Credit for February (dollar change, billions)                  

 Friday, April 6 at 3:00 p.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Feb18   Jan18   Dec17

 Cons Cred    +$16.7   +$15.0 to +$18.4               -- +$13.9b +$19.2b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $16.7 billion in  

February after a $13.9 billion increase in January. Retail sales fell by

0.1%, but were up 0.2% excluding motor vehicles.                        

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com