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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Apr 20/17:06 EST Apr 20
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Existing-home Sales for March (annual rate)
Monday, April 23 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar18 Feb18 Jan18
Home Resales 5.54m 5.39m to 5.60m -- 5.54m 5.38m
Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to hold
steady at a 5.54 annual rate in March after rising to that point in
February. Pending home sales rebounded by 3.1% in February after dipping
in January, but the index remained below its year ago level. Supply of
homes for sale remains extremely low, keeping prices elevated.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for April (index)
Tuesday, April 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Apr18 Mar18 Feb18
Confidence 125.1 123.3 to 129.0 -- 127.7 130.0
Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to slip
further to a reading of 125.1 in April, remaining elevated, but with
some signs that the stock market gyrations have entered consumers'
consciousness. The Michigan Sentiment Index fell to 97.8 in early-April
from 101.4 in March.
New Home Sales for March (annual rate)
Tuesday, April 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar18 Feb18 Jan18
New Homes 627k 617k to 635k -- 618k 622k
Comments: New home sales are expected to rebound to a 627,000
annual rate in March following a third straight decline in February.
Unadjusted sales were flat from a year earlier. Meanwhile, home supply
was up 2.0% month/month and 16.0% year/year, so the supply is there if
demand increases.
Weekly Jobless Claims for April 21 week
Thursday, April 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Apr21 Apr14 Apr07
Weekly Claims 233k 231k to 234k -- 232k 233k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 1,000 to 233,000 in the April 21, gaining back the decline from the
previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by 3,750 in the
coming week as the 218,000 level in the March 24 week drops out of the
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no
revisions.
Durable Goods Orders for March (percent change)
Thursday, April 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar18 Feb18 Jan18
New Orders +1.2% -1.0% to +3.5% -- +3.0% -3.6%
Ex-Transport +0.5% +0.1% to +1.0% -- +1.0% -0.3%
Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 1,2% in
March after a 3.0% gain in February. Boeing orders surged to a total of
197 from 30 in the previous month, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders
could post another sharp gain. Orders excluding transportation are
expected to post a 0.5% increase after a 1.0% gain in February.
GDP for First Quarter (advance estimate)
Friday, April 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 1Q18a 4Q17 3Q17
GDP +1.9% +1.6% to +2.4% -- +2.9% +3.2%
Chain Prices +2.2% +2.1% to +2.5% -- +2.3% +2.1%
Comments: First quarter GDP is expected to be up 1.9%, weaker
than the 2.9% pace in the previous quarter, with the key factor being
much slower PCE growth as the retail sales data have been incredibly
soft in recent months. Stronger capital spending and inventory
investment should provide some offset. First quarter GDP growth is
typically softer than the fourth quarter due to residual seasonality.
The chain price index is expected to rise 2.2% in the first quarter
after a 2.3% fourth quarter gain.
Employment Cost Index for First Quarter (percent change)
Friday, April 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17
ECI +0.7% +0.6% to +0.8% -- +0.6% +0.7%
Comments: The ECI is expected to rise by 0.7% in the first quarter
after a 0.6% gain in the previous quarter, but the year/year pace should
be roughly unchanged at 2.6%.
University of Michigan Survey for April (final)
Friday, April 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Apr18f Apr18p Mar18
Consumer Sent 97.9 97.8 to 98.5 -- 97.8 101.4
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up
slightly to 97.9 from 97.8 in the preliminary estimate, remaining below
the 101.4 reading in March.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.