US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 4/17:06 EST May 4

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Consumer Credit for March (dollar change, billions)                     

 Monday, May 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                           Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Mar18   Feb18   Jan18

 Cons Cred    +$16.3   +$13.0 to +$19.1               -- +$10.6b +$15.6b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $16.3 billion in  

March after a $10.6 billion increase in February. Retail sales rose by  

0.6% and were still up 0.2% excluding a 2.0% jump in motor vehicles, so 

improved readings for both revolving and nonrevolving credit are        

expected.                                                               

Producer Price Index for April (percent change)                         

 Wednesday, May 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Final Demand    +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.4%              --  +0.3%  +0.2%

 Ex Food,Energy  +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.3%              --  +0.3%  +0.2%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in April after 

a 0.3% gain in March. Energy prices are expected to surge after a dip in

March, with gasoline a driving factor, while food prices are expected to

flatten after surging in the previous month. Excluding food and energy  

prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after a stronger than expected 0.3%

increase in the previous month.                                         

Weekly Jobless Claims for May 5 week                                    

 Thursday, May 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

                 Median         Range                May05  Apr28  Apr21

 Weekly Claims   220k        220k to 220k               --   211k   209k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to post a

further increase in the March 5 week, rising by 9,000 to 220,000 after a

small 2,000 increase in the previous week that kept claims very near a  

decades-low level. The four-week moving average would fall by 3,250 in  

the coming week as the 233,000 level in the April 7 week drops out of   

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no  

revisions. This would set another new 45-year record if it is realized. 

Consumer Price Index for April (percent change)                         

 Thursday, May 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 CPI          +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  -0.1%  +0.2%

 CPI Core     +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +0.2%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in April following a    

weaker-than-expected 0.1% decline in March. The year/year rates should  

stabilize or even decline modestly after a runup in March due to base   

factors from a year ago. For April, AAA reported a modest gain in       

mid-month prices from March, which could support a rebound in CPI       

gasoline prices after a March decline. The core CPI is forecast to rise 

0.2% following a similar increase in the previous month.                

Treasury Statement for April ($ billions)                               

 Thursday, May 10 at 2:00 p.m ET                         Actual:        

             Median           Range              Apr18    Mar18    Apr17

 Balance     +$130.0b  +$130.0b to +$130.0b         -- -$208.7b +$182.4b

     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 billion     

budget surplus in the April tax month, down from the $182.4 billion     

surplus in April 2017. Lower-than-normal receipts and higher outlays    

should both be seen in the data.                                        

University of Michigan Survey for May (preliminary)                     

 Friday, May 11 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                Median           Range              May18p  Apr18  Mar18

 Consumer Sent  99.0          97.0 to 99.5              --   98.8  101.4

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rebound very  

modestly to a reading of 99.0 in early-May after dipping to 98.8 in     

April. Concerns in the previous month regarding potential trade wars and

financial market movements were less of a factor at the end of April and

start of May.                                                           

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com