US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 30/17:06 EST Jul 30

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Personal Income for June (percent change)                               

 Tuesday, July 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Income         +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.4%  +0.2%

 Spending       +0.5%    +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.2%  +0.5%

 Core Prices    +0.1%    +0.1% to +0.1%                 --  +0.2%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in June, as  

payrolls rose 213,000 and hourly earnings rose 0.2%, while average      

weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to    

rise by 0.5% after a softer-than-expected 0.2% May gain. Total retail   

sales rose by 0.5% in the month and were still up 0.4% excluding a 0.9% 

gain in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building

materials and food services were flat after solid gains in the previous 

three months. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.1%       

increase in June, but the y/y rate could remain at the 2% pace set in   

May. Comprehensive benchmark revisions will be included.                

Employment Cost Index for Second Quarter (percent change)               

 Tuesday, July 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

                 Median       Range                   2Q18   1Q18   4Q17

 ECI              +0.6%  +0.6% to +0.7%                 --  +0.8%  +0.6%

     Comments: The ECI is expected to rise 0.6% in the second quarter   

after a 0.8% first quarter gain, but the quarterly increase should be   

significant enough to lift the year/year rate to around 2.9%. Analysts  

see a modest slowing in wage growth combined with steady benefits       

growth.                                                                 

MNI Chicago Report for July (index)                                     

 Tuesday, July 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 MNI Chicago     63.1     62.0 to 65.0                  --   64.1   62.7

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to decline to a reading  

of 63.1 in July after rising further to 64.1 in June. Other regional    

data already released were generally lower, with the notable exception  

of a gain in the Philadelphia Fed survey.                               

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for July (index)                   

 Tuesday, July 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Confidence     127.0    125.0 to 127.5                 --  126.4  128.8

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound  

to a reading of 127.0 in July after dipping in June. The competing      

impacts of favorable current conditions and concerns about the trade    

impact on the near future make for significant uncertainty for the      

headline figure. The Michigan Sentiment Index fell to 97.9 in July from 

98.2 in June.                                                           

ISM Manufacturing Index for July                                        

 Wednesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Mfg ISM         59.5     58.0 to 59.7                  --   60.2   58.7

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a  

reading of 59.5 in July after rising to 60.2 in June. Regional          

conditions data have suggested modest deceleration, while the Markit    

flash estimate rose modestly to 55.5 from 55.4 in June.                 

Weekly Jobless Claims for July 28 week                                  

 Thursday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul28  Jul21  Jul14

 Weekly Claims   219k     215k to 220k                  --   217k   208k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by only 2,000 to 219,000 in the July 28 week after a rebound of 9,000 to

a still-low 217,000 level in the previous week. The four-week moving    

average would fall by 3,500 in the coming week as the 232,000 level in  

the June 30 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast

is correct and there are no revisions.                                  

Factory Orders for June (percent change)                                

 Thursday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18

 New Orders     +0.4%    +0.2% to +0.9%                 --  +0.4%  -0.4%

 Ex Transport   --          -- to --                    --  +0.7%  +0.9%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.4% in June.     

Durable goods orders rose by 1.0% in the month on a solid gain in       

transportation orders, but nondurables orders are expected to pull back 

sharply after an energy-related surge in May. Durable orders excluding  

transportation were up 0.4%, suggesting factory orders excluding        

transportation should post another gain.                                

Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         

 Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18 

 Payrolls       +190k    +182k to +207k                --  +213k  +244k 

 Private Job    +200k    +183k to +208k                --  +202k  +239k 

 Jobless Rate    3.9%     3.8% to 4.0%                 --   4.0%   3.8% 

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.3% 

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5 

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in July 

after a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in June. The unemployment   

rate is expected to slip back to 3.9% after rebounding to 4.0% in June. 

Hourly earnings are forecast to post another 0.2% gain, but the         

year/year rate could decline on base effects, while the average workweek

is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for the sixth straight month.         

Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               

 Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                Jun18   May18   Apr18

 Trade Gap    -$46.1b  -$47.0b to -45.4b              -- -$43.1b -$46.2b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $46.1

billion in June from $43.1 billion in May. The impact of the tariffs may

be seen in force in the data starting this month. The advance estimate  

of the Census goods trade gap widened to $68.3 billion, as export fell  

and imports rose.                                                       

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for July                                    

 Friday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 ISM NMI         58.7     57.9 to 59.5                  --   59.1   58.6

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fell to a  

reading of 58.7 in July from 59.1 in June. The Philadelphia             

nonmanufacturing index rose to 44.3, while the flash Markit Services    

index fell slightly to 56.2.                                            

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]