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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 30/17:06 EST Jul 30
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Personal Income for June (percent change)                               
 Tuesday, July 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18
 Income         +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.4%  +0.2%
 Spending       +0.5%    +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.2%  +0.5%
 Core Prices    +0.1%    +0.1% to +0.1%                 --  +0.2%  +0.2%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in June, as  
payrolls rose 213,000 and hourly earnings rose 0.2%, while average      
weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to    
rise by 0.5% after a softer-than-expected 0.2% May gain. Total retail   
sales rose by 0.5% in the month and were still up 0.4% excluding a 0.9% 
gain in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building
materials and food services were flat after solid gains in the previous 
three months. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.1%       
increase in June, but the y/y rate could remain at the 2% pace set in   
May. Comprehensive benchmark revisions will be included.                
Employment Cost Index for Second Quarter (percent change)               
 Tuesday, July 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
                 Median       Range                   2Q18   1Q18   4Q17
 ECI              +0.6%  +0.6% to +0.7%                 --  +0.8%  +0.6%
     Comments: The ECI is expected to rise 0.6% in the second quarter   
after a 0.8% first quarter gain, but the quarterly increase should be   
significant enough to lift the year/year rate to around 2.9%. Analysts  
see a modest slowing in wage growth combined with steady benefits       
growth.                                                                 
MNI Chicago Report for July (index)                                     
 Tuesday, July 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 MNI Chicago     63.1     62.0 to 65.0                  --   64.1   62.7
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to decline to a reading  
of 63.1 in July after rising further to 64.1 in June. Other regional    
data already released were generally lower, with the notable exception  
of a gain in the Philadelphia Fed survey.                               
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for July (index)                   
 Tuesday, July 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Confidence     127.0    125.0 to 127.5                 --  126.4  128.8
     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound  
to a reading of 127.0 in July after dipping in June. The competing      
impacts of favorable current conditions and concerns about the trade    
impact on the near future make for significant uncertainty for the      
headline figure. The Michigan Sentiment Index fell to 97.9 in July from 
98.2 in June.                                                           
ISM Manufacturing Index for July                                        
 Wednesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Mfg ISM         59.5     58.0 to 59.7                  --   60.2   58.7
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a  
reading of 59.5 in July after rising to 60.2 in June. Regional          
conditions data have suggested modest deceleration, while the Markit    
flash estimate rose modestly to 55.5 from 55.4 in June.                 
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 28 week                                  
 Thursday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul28  Jul21  Jul14
 Weekly Claims   219k     215k to 220k                  --   217k   208k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by only 2,000 to 219,000 in the July 28 week after a rebound of 9,000 to
a still-low 217,000 level in the previous week. The four-week moving    
average would fall by 3,500 in the coming week as the 232,000 level in  
the June 30 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast
is correct and there are no revisions.                                  
Factory Orders for June (percent change)                                
 Thursday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18
 New Orders     +0.4%    +0.2% to +0.9%                 --  +0.4%  -0.4%
 Ex Transport   --          -- to --                    --  +0.7%  +0.9%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.4% in June.     
Durable goods orders rose by 1.0% in the month on a solid gain in       
transportation orders, but nondurables orders are expected to pull back 
sharply after an energy-related surge in May. Durable orders excluding  
transportation were up 0.4%, suggesting factory orders excluding        
transportation should post another gain.                                
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         
 Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18 
 Payrolls       +190k    +182k to +207k                --  +213k  +244k 
 Private Job    +200k    +183k to +208k                --  +202k  +239k 
 Jobless Rate    3.9%     3.8% to 4.0%                 --   4.0%   3.8% 
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.3% 
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5 
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in July 
after a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in June. The unemployment   
rate is expected to slip back to 3.9% after rebounding to 4.0% in June. 
Hourly earnings are forecast to post another 0.2% gain, but the         
year/year rate could decline on base effects, while the average workweek
is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for the sixth straight month.         
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               
 Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                Jun18   May18   Apr18
 Trade Gap    -$46.1b  -$47.0b to -45.4b              -- -$43.1b -$46.2b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $46.1
billion in June from $43.1 billion in May. The impact of the tariffs may
be seen in force in the data starting this month. The advance estimate  
of the Census goods trade gap widened to $68.3 billion, as export fell  
and imports rose.                                                       
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for July                                    
 Friday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 ISM NMI         58.7     57.9 to 59.5                  --   59.1   58.6
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fell to a  
reading of 58.7 in July from 59.1 in June. The Philadelphia             
nonmanufacturing index rose to 44.3, while the flash Markit Services    
index fell slightly to 56.2.                                            
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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