US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Feb 22/17:06 EST Feb 22

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Housing Starts for December (annual rate, million) 

 Tuesday, February 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Starts    1.261m      1.256m to 1.290m                 -- 1.256m 1.217m 

     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to rise only 

modestly to a 1.261 million pace in December after surging in November, 

while building permits are expected decline to a 1.290 million pace 

after rising in November. Unadjusted starts were down 2.0% year/year. 

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for February (index)

 Tuesday, February 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Confidence     125.0    123.4 to 127.2                 --  120.2  126.6

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound 

to a reading of 125.0 in February after dipping sharply to 120.0 in 

January as the Federal Government shutdown lingered on. The preliminary 

Michigan Sentiment index rose to 95.5 in early-February from 91.2 in the 

previous month. 

Factory Orders for December (percent change)                             

 Wednesday, February 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 New Orders     +0.6%    +0.2% to +0.9%                 --  -0.6%  -2.1%

 Ex Transport    --        --  to  --                   --  -1.3%  +0.2%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.6% in December 

after declines in October and November. Durable goods orders were 

already reported up 1.2%. However, factory orders are likely to be a bit 

of a disappointment as durable goods excluding transportation rose only 

0.1% and nondurables orders should decline lower energy prices. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 23 week                                

 Thursday, February 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Feb23  Feb16  Feb09

 Weekly Claims   220k     220k to 220k                   --  216k   239k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 4,000 to 220,000 in the February 23 week after a decrease of 23,000 

to a 216,000 level in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment 

difficulties in January and February make claims a relatively unreliable 

indicator. The four-week moving average would fall sharply by this week 

as the recent high 253,000 level in the January 26 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

GDP for Fourth Quarter (initial estimate)

 Thursday, February 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  4Q18i   3Q18   2Q18

 GDP            +2.1%    +1.9% to +2.8%                 --  +3.4%  +4.2% 

 Chain Prices     --        -- to --                    --  +1.8%  +3.0%

     Comments: Analysts see a 2.1% increase for fourth quarter GDP in 

the initial estimate, much slower than the 3.4% gain in the third 

quarter. The very weak December retail sales took the wind out of 

expectations for a solid PCE reading for the quarter, but it is still 

expected to be a positive factor. Capital spending should also add to 

GDP, but missing December data for business inventories and 

international trade present a forecast risk. 

MNI Chicago Report for February (index)                                 

 Thursday, February 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 MNI Chicago     58.0     56.0 to 60.0                  --   56.7   63.8

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise to 58.0 in 

February after a decline to 56.7 in January. Other regional data already 

released have suggested mixed conditions, with the Empire State index up 

and the Philadelphia Fed index falling into negative territory. 

Personal Income for January (percent change)                          

 Friday, March 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Income         +0.3%    +0.3% to +0.3%                 --     --  +0.2% 

 Spending (Dec) -0.3%    -0.6% to +0.2%                 --     --  +0.4%

 Core Prices(Dec) +0.2%  +0.2% to +0.2%                 --     --  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in January, 

reflecting a spike in employment, steady hours worked, and a small gain 

in hourly earnings. The backlogged December personal income is expected 

to rise by 0.5%. Only December PCE data will be reported due to a lack 

of Census data and it is expected to decline by 0.3% reflecting the 

retail sales plunge. Core prices are seen up 0.2%. 

ISM Manufacturing Index for February                                       

 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Mfg ISM         54.8     54.5 to 55.6                  --   56.6   54.3

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall back to a 

reading of 54.8 in February after sharp movements in the previous two 

months. Regional conditions data have suggested a mixed picture. 

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for February (mln units, saar)                  

 Friday, March 1                                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.1m   7.6m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales excluding GM and 

Ford is expected to rebound modestly in February after a dip in January. 

Seasonal factors will be a smaller addition to unadjusted claims than 

they were in the previous month, but the end of the government shutdown 

should allow furloughed government employees to make purchases that they 

delayed in January. 

University of Michigan Survey for February (final)          

 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

                Median        Range                 Feb19f Feb19p  Jan19

 Consumer Sent    96.0    95.5 to 96.5                  --   95.5   91.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a 

reading of 96.0 in February from the 95.5 preliminary estimate. This 

would keep the index well above the 91.2 reading in January.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]