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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Feb 22/17:06 EST Feb 22
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Housing Starts for December (annual rate, million) 
 Tuesday, February 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Dec18  Nov18  Oct18
 Starts    1.261m      1.256m to 1.290m                 -- 1.256m 1.217m 
     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to rise only 
modestly to a 1.261 million pace in December after surging in November, 
while building permits are expected decline to a 1.290 million pace 
after rising in November. Unadjusted starts were down 2.0% year/year. 
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for February (index)
 Tuesday, February 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 Confidence     125.0    123.4 to 127.2                 --  120.2  126.6
     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound 
to a reading of 125.0 in February after dipping sharply to 120.0 in 
January as the Federal Government shutdown lingered on. The preliminary 
Michigan Sentiment index rose to 95.5 in early-February from 91.2 in the 
previous month. 
Factory Orders for December (percent change)                             
 Wednesday, February 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18
 New Orders     +0.6%    +0.2% to +0.9%                 --  -0.6%  -2.1%
 Ex Transport    --        --  to  --                   --  -1.3%  +0.2%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.6% in December 
after declines in October and November. Durable goods orders were 
already reported up 1.2%. However, factory orders are likely to be a bit 
of a disappointment as durable goods excluding transportation rose only 
0.1% and nondurables orders should decline lower energy prices. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for February 23 week                                
 Thursday, February 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Feb23  Feb16  Feb09
 Weekly Claims   220k     220k to 220k                   --  216k   239k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 
by 4,000 to 220,000 in the February 23 week after a decrease of 23,000 
to a 216,000 level in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment 
difficulties in January and February make claims a relatively unreliable 
indicator. The four-week moving average would fall sharply by this week 
as the recent high 253,000 level in the January 26 week rolls out of the 
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 
revisions. 
GDP for Fourth Quarter (initial estimate)
 Thursday, February 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  4Q18i   3Q18   2Q18
 GDP            +2.1%    +1.9% to +2.8%                 --  +3.4%  +4.2% 
 Chain Prices     --        -- to --                    --  +1.8%  +3.0%
     Comments: Analysts see a 2.1% increase for fourth quarter GDP in 
the initial estimate, much slower than the 3.4% gain in the third 
quarter. The very weak December retail sales took the wind out of 
expectations for a solid PCE reading for the quarter, but it is still 
expected to be a positive factor. Capital spending should also add to 
GDP, but missing December data for business inventories and 
international trade present a forecast risk. 
MNI Chicago Report for February (index)                                 
 Thursday, February 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 MNI Chicago     58.0     56.0 to 60.0                  --   56.7   63.8
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise to 58.0 in 
February after a decline to 56.7 in January. Other regional data already 
released have suggested mixed conditions, with the Empire State index up 
and the Philadelphia Fed index falling into negative territory. 
Personal Income for January (percent change)                          
 Friday, March 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18
 Income         +0.3%    +0.3% to +0.3%                 --     --  +0.2% 
 Spending (Dec) -0.3%    -0.6% to +0.2%                 --     --  +0.4%
 Core Prices(Dec) +0.2%  +0.2% to +0.2%                 --     --  +0.1%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in January, 
reflecting a spike in employment, steady hours worked, and a small gain 
in hourly earnings. The backlogged December personal income is expected 
to rise by 0.5%. Only December PCE data will be reported due to a lack 
of Census data and it is expected to decline by 0.3% reflecting the 
retail sales plunge. Core prices are seen up 0.2%. 
ISM Manufacturing Index for February                                       
 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 Mfg ISM         54.8     54.5 to 55.6                  --   56.6   54.3
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall back to a 
reading of 54.8 in February after sharp movements in the previous two 
months. Regional conditions data have suggested a mixed picture. 
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for February (mln units, saar)                  
 Friday, March 1                                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.1m   7.6m
     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales excluding GM and 
Ford is expected to rebound modestly in February after a dip in January. 
Seasonal factors will be a smaller addition to unadjusted claims than 
they were in the previous month, but the end of the government shutdown 
should allow furloughed government employees to make purchases that they 
delayed in January. 
University of Michigan Survey for February (final)          
 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
                Median        Range                 Feb19f Feb19p  Jan19
 Consumer Sent    96.0    95.5 to 96.5                  --   95.5   91.2
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a 
reading of 96.0 in February from the 95.5 preliminary estimate. This 
would keep the index well above the 91.2 reading in January.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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