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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Apr 19/17:06 EST Apr 19
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Existing-home Sales for March (annual rate)                           
 Monday, April 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:
                 Median       Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 Home Resales     5.36m  5.25m to 5.54m                 --  5.51m  4.93m
     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slow to 
5.36 million in February after a sharp increase to 5.51 million in 
Febraury. Home sales remain below their year ago levels despite some 
recent recovery in sales and supply.
New Home Sales for March (annual rate)
 Tuesday, April 23 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                 Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 New Homes       645k     601k to 674k                 --   667k   636k 
     Comments: The pace of new home sales is forecast to fall to 645,000 
in March from 667,000 in February and 636,000 in January. Low mortgage 
rates should contiue to prop up sales in the coming months.
Weekly Jobless Claims for April 20 week                                
 Thursday, April 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Apr20  Apr13  Apr06
 Weekly Claims  196k      192k to 200k                  --   192k   197k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 
by 4,000 to 196,000 in the April 20 week after a decrease of 5,000 to 
192,000 in the previous week, a 50-year low. The four-week moving 
average would fall by 4,000 this week as the 212,000 level in the March 
23 week rolls out of the calculation. The timing of spring breaks varies 
from year to year, making seasonal adjustment difficult and leaving open 
the possibility of a surprise. 
Durable Goods Orders for March (percent change)
 Thursday, April 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19 
 New Orders     +0.8%     -0.2 to +1.3%                 --  -0.5%   Flat 
 Ex-Transport   +0.3%     Flat to +1.5%                 --  -0.1%  -0.1%
     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.8% in 
March after falling by 0.5% in February. Boeing orders rose in March 
after a February dip, which should allow transportation orders to 
increase. Durable goods orders excluding transportation are expected to  
rise 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in February. 
GDP for First Quarter (advance estimate)
 Friday, April 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  1Q19a   4Q18   3Q18
 GDP            +1.8%    +1.5% to +2.5%                 --  +2.2%  +3.4% 
 Chain Prices   +1.8%    +1.5% to +2.5%                 --  +1.7%  +1.8%
     Comments: Analysts see GDP rising by 1.8 in the first quarter's 
advance estimate, below the 2.2% gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts 
cite the fading effects of a tax stimulus, the parital government 
shutdown, and severe weather conditions as the key negative factors and 
residential construction and exports as positive factors. The chain 
price index is expected to rise to a 1.8% rate from the 1.7% gain in 
the previous quarter. 
University of Michigan Survey for April (final)          
 Friday, April 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:
                Median        Range                  Apr19f Apr19p Mar19
 Consumer Sent    97.3    97.0 to 97.7                   --  96.9   98.4
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up 
to a reading of 97.3 in March. This would keep the index below the 98.4 
reading in March.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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