US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 21/17:06 EST Jun 21

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

New Home Sales for May (annual rate)

 Tuesday, June 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 New Homes      690k      665k to 715k                  --   673k   723k 

     Comments: The pace of new home sales is forecast to rise to 690,000 

SAAR in May after a dip in April. The April pace was significantly 

higher than its year-ago level, but supply growth was even stronger. 

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for June (index)

 Tuesday, June 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Confidence    130.5     125.0 to 135.0                 --  134.1  129.2

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to fall to a 

reading of 130.5 in June after rising further to 134.1 in May. The 

preliminary Michigan Sentiment index fell to 97.9 in June from 100.0 in 

the previous month. 

Durable Goods Orders for May (percent change)

 Wednesday, June 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19 

 New Orders    -1.0%     -8.5% to +1.6%                 --  -2.1%  +1.7%

 Ex-Transport  +0.2%     -0.5% to +0.8%                 --   Flat  -0.5%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to fall by 1.0% in May, 

with aircraft the key reason for the second month in a row. Boeing 

reported no new orders in May, and additionally received multiple 

cancellation, so a huge plunge in the transportation category is very 

likely. Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.2% outside of the 

transportation component. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 22 week                                

 Thursday, June 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jun22  Jun15  Jun08

 Weekly Claims  219k      215k to 230k                  --   216k   222k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 3,000 to 219,000 in the June 22 week after a decrease to 216,000 in 

the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by only 250 

this week as the 218,000 level in the May 25 survey week rolls out of 

the calculation. 

GDP for First Quarter (third estimate)

 Thursday, June 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  1Q19t  1Q19s   4Q18

 GDP           +3.2%     +2.9% to +3.3%                 --  +3.1%  +2.2% 

 Chain Prices  +0.8%     +0.8% to +0.8%                 --  +0.8%  +1.7%

     Comments: The third estimate of first quarter GDP is expected to be 

largely overlooked, with revisions likely to be very modest and leave 

overall GDP at a 3.1% gain. Analysts are looking ahead to the second 

quarter, when growth is expected to slow dramatically. 

Personal Income for May (percent change)                          

 Friday, June 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Income        +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.5%                 --  +0.5%  +0.1% 

 Spending      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.6%                 --  +0.3%  +1.1%

 Core Prices   +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in May, as 

payrolls rose by only 75,000, the average workweek was unchanged, and 

hourly earnings posted a trend 0.2% gain. PCE is expected to be rise by 

0.2%, based on stronger retail sales data in May and an upward revision 

to sales in the previous month. Core PCE prices are expected to rise by 

0.2% in May, which should keep the year/year rate at 1.6%. Core PCE 

prices rose by 0.2% in May 2018. 

MNI Chicago Report for June (index)                                 

 Friday, June 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET                          Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 MNI Chicago    53.6      52.0 to 56.0                  --   54.2   52.6

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to fall back slightly to 

a reading of 53.6 in June after a modest gain to 54.2 in May. Other 

regional data already released have suggested a considerable slowdown in 

the month. 

University of Michigan Survey for June (final)          

 Friday, June 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:

                Median        Range                  Jun19f Jun19p May19

 Consumer Sent   97.7     97.2 to 100.0                  --   97.9 100.0

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised 

down to a reading of 97.7 in June after slipping to 97.9 in the 

preliminary estimate.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]