US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 28/17:06 EST Jun 28

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                       

Construction Spending for May (percent change)                          

 Monday, July 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Construction   +0.4%    -0.6% to +0.6%                 --   Flat  +0.1%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.4% in May 

after holding steady in April. Housing starts fell in the month, so     

residential construction could add to the string of declines.           

ISM Manufacturing Index for June                                        

 Monday, July 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Mfg ISM         51.3     50.0 to 53.0                  --   52.1   52.8

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a  

reading of 51.3 in June, a third straight decline. Regional conditions  

data have suggested considerable weakness, with some readings turning   

negative.                                                               

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for June (mln units, saar)                 

 Tuesday, July 2                                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.7m   7.1m

     Comments: The pace of domestic vehicle sales is expected to decline

after rising sharply to 7.7 million in May. Seasonal factors will be a  

smaller subtraction from unadjusted sales than in May.                  

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 29 week                                  

 Wednesday, July 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun29  Jun22  Jun15

 Weekly Claims   222k     220k to 230k                  --   227k   217k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

decline by 5,000 to 222,000 in the June 29 week after an increase to    

227,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by

750 this week as the 219,000 level in the June 1 survey week rolls out  

of the calculation.                                                     

Trade in Goods and Services for May (deficit, billion $)                

 Wednesday, July 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:         

               Median         Range                May19   Apr19   Mar19

 Trade Gap    -$53.6b  -$54.6b to -$48.7b             -- -$50.8b -$51.9b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $53.6

billion in May after narrowing in April. The advance trade report       

released on June 26 showed a sharp widening of the Census trade gap in  

May.                                                                    

Factory Orders for May (percent change)                                 

 Wednesday, July 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:      

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 New Orders     -0.7%    -1.0% to +0.1%                 --  -0.8%  +1.3%

 Ex-Transport                                           --  +0.3%  +0.3%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.7% in May,      

reflecting a 1.3% decline in durable goods orders and a decline in      

nondurable goods orders.                                                

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for June                                    

 Wednesday, July 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:      

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 ISM NMI         56.0     55.0 to 56.9                  --   56.9   55.5

     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to fall to  

56.0 in June after rising to 56.9 in May. The flash Markit services     

estimate fell slightly to 50.7, while the Dallas services reading       

rebounded to 3.2 from -0.3 and the Richmond Fed services reading slipped

to 3 from 5.                                                            

Nonfarm Payrolls for June (change in thousands)                         

 Friday, July 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Payrolls       +169k    +125k to +205k                 --   +75k  +224k

 Private Jobs   +155k    +125k to +180k                 --   +90k  +205k

 Jobless Rate    3.6%     3.5% to 3.7%                  --   3.6%   3.6%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.2%  +0.2%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4     34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 169,000 in June 

after a much weaker-than-expected 75,000 rise in May. The unemployment  

rate is expected to stay at the 50-year low of 3.6%. Hourly earnings are

forecast to rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at

34.4 hours in April.                                                    

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]