US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 12/17:06 EST Jul 12

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                       

Empire State Index for July (diffusion index)                           

 Monday, July 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Empire Index      2.0     -5.0 to 6.0                  --   -8.6   17.8        

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to rebound to 2.0 in  

July after dipping below zero in June.                                  

Retail and Food Sales for June (percent change)                         

 Tuesday, July 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Retail Sales   +0.2%    -0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.5%  +0.3%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.2%    -0.1% to +0.4%                 --  +0.5%  +0.5%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.2% in June after a   

0.5% increase in May. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle    

sales slowed in June, while AAA reported that gasoline prices slipped in

mid-May from one month earlier after four straight gains. Retail sales  

are expected to also rise 0.2% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.5%    

increase in May.                                                        

Industrial Production for June (percent change)                         

 Tuesday, July 16 at 9:45 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

              Median          Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Ind Prod      +0.2%     -0.6% to +0.4%                 --  +0.4%  -0.4%

 Cap Util      78.1%     77.8% to 78.4%                 --  78.1%  77.9%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in June   

after a 0.4% increase in May. Factory payrolls rose by 17,000 in June   

while the factory workweek rose to 40.7 from 40.6 in May. The ISM       

production index jumped to 54.1 in the current month from 51.3 in the   

previous month and along with the other manufacturing data suggest a    

modest uptick in factory production. However, utilities production is   

expected to fall sharply in the month after a 2.1% increase in May, with

less electricity production the key factor. Mining production is        

forecast to slip as well after a 0.1% gain in the previous month.       

Capacity utilization is forecast to hold steady at 78.1%.               

Business Inventories for May (percent change)                           

 Tuesday, July 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

              Median           Range                 May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Inventories   +0.3%      +0.3% to +0.5%                --  +0.5%   Flat

     Comments: The value of business inventories is expected to rise by 

0.3% in May, in line with an MNI calculation after the wholesale data.  

Factory inventories were up 0.2% in the month, while wholesale          

inventories rose 0.4% and the advance reading for retail inventories was

a 0.5% gain. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.1%, wholesale sales 

rose by 0.1%, and the advance estimate of retail trade sales was a 0.5% 

increase, adding up to a 0.2% increase for business sales before any    

retail sales revision.                                                  

Housing Starts for June (annual rate, million)                          

 Wednesday, July 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:      

           Median            Range                   Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Starts    1.260m      1.230m to 1.290m              -- 1.269m 1.281m   

     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to decline further

to a 1.260 million pace in June after falling to 1.269 million in May,  

while building permits are expected to rise very slightly to a 1.300    

million pace from the 1.299 million revised May rate. Unadjusted starts 

were down 4.0% from a year earlier in May.                              

Weekly Jobless Claims for July 13 week                                  

 Thursday, July 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul13  Jul06  Jun29

 Weekly Claims   216k     210k to 220l                  --   209k   221k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 7,000 to 216,000 in the July 13 employment survey week after 

a decrease to 209,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average

would decline very slightly this week as the 217,000 level in the June  

15 employment survey week rolls out of the calculation.                 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for July (diffusion index)           

 Thursday, July 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Phila Fed          4.5     0.0 to 7.0                  --    0.3   16.6

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rebound to a   

reading of 4.5 in July after plunging to 0.3 in June.                   

Leading Indicators for June (percent change)                            

 Thursday, July 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

                 Median         Range                Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Leading Index    +0.1%     Flat to +0.1%               --   Flat  +0.1%

     Comments: The leading index is expected to rise by only 0.1% in    

June, with positive contributions from stronger stock prices and a      

slightly longer factory workweek and negative factors from a sharp drop 

in consumer expectations and higher jobless claims.                     

University of Michigan Survey for July (preliminary)                    

 Friday, July 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

                Median        Range                  Jul19p  Jun19 May19

 Consumer Sent    98.6    98.0 to 99.7                   --   98.2 100.0

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a    

reading of 98.6 in early-July from 98.2 in June.                        

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]