US DATA
Initial jobless claims fell in the Nov 9 week for the 4th week in the past 5, by 4k to a 28-week low of 217k and below the 220k expected. The 4-week moving average downshifted 6k to 221k, a 25-week low. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims ticked up 11k to 212k.
- Continuing claims in the Nov 2 week meanwhile dipped 11k to 1,873k - that's in line with expectations though the prior week was revised down 8k.
- Initial claims from states hit by Helene/Milton (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia) continue to edge lower: after peaking at 36.1k on Oct 5, they are now down at 22.3k, basically where they were in mid-September.
- However, continuing claims rose again sharply in those states through the week of Oct 25: up 7.8k, after having fallen 5.6k the prior week. At 145.9k, they are up 17k from mid-September and the highest level since early August. Understandably, this is above the usual seasonal pattern of claims in those states (see chart), but the reduction in initial claims in subsequent weeks offers evidence that this will be temporary.
- There continues to be only faint evidence of much of a lingering effect from Boeing strikes / Michigan auto shutdowns.
- Overall this is a solid report that shows no new weakness in labor market conditions through early November.
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