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US DATA: Labor Differential Continues To Imply Upward Pressure On U/E Rate

US DATA
  • The Conference Board consumer survey saw overall confidence surprise higher again, this time to 103.3 (cons 100.9) in August after an upward revised 101.9 (initial 100.3) for its highest since Feb. 
  • However, its labor differential fell further to 16.4 from a downward revised 17.1 (initial 18.1) – of added significance considering the latest dialling up of attention on labor data. 
  • The July decline had forewarned an increase in the unemployment rate back in July and this further decline sets a fresh low since Mar 2021 (back at 2017 levels for a pre-pandemic comparison). 
  • We’d caution trying to directly read what it means for the unemployment rate, but on its own it doesn’t make the step higher to 4.25% in July look overly out of place. 
  • Within the details, the share seeing jobs as hard to get was little changed at 16.4% after an upward revised 16.3 (initial 16.0%), whilst the perception seeing plentiful jobs fell to 32.8% from 33.4 (initial 34.1) for also a fresh low since Mar 2021. 

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