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US DATA: Mortgage Rate-Constrained Existing Home Sales Sag To Fresh 14-Year Low

US DATA
USEM BulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

Existing home sales continue to slump, falling 1.0% M/M in September to 3.84M SA annualized (vs 3.88M expected). That's down 3.5% from a year earlier, at the lowest rate since October 2010 and well off the torrid pace at the 2021 pandemic high (6.43M).

  • The inventory of unsold homes (1.39M, NSA) has risen to 4.34 months' supply at the current pace of sales - a fresh post-2020 high and well off the 1.7 month low set in December 2021.
  • The slow rise in existing home supply brings the ratio more firmly into the pre-pandemic range (4.2 months from 2015-19), even as sales activity continues to diminish as low locked-in fixed rate mortgages deter movement, and delinquencies remain low.
  • That said, prices continue to hold up: the $404k in September represents a 3.0% Y/Y - so there is little evidence that sellers are blinking even as sales taper off.
  • To sum up: existing home sales are unlikely to pick up unless long-end Treasury rates fall substantially.
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Existing home sales continue to slump, falling 1.0% M/M in September to 3.84M SA annualized (vs 3.88M expected). That's down 3.5% from a year earlier, at the lowest rate since October 2010 and well off the torrid pace at the 2021 pandemic high (6.43M).

  • The inventory of unsold homes (1.39M, NSA) has risen to 4.34 months' supply at the current pace of sales - a fresh post-2020 high and well off the 1.7 month low set in December 2021.
  • The slow rise in existing home supply brings the ratio more firmly into the pre-pandemic range (4.2 months from 2015-19), even as sales activity continues to diminish as low locked-in fixed rate mortgages deter movement, and delinquencies remain low.
  • That said, prices continue to hold up: the $404k in September represents a 3.0% Y/Y - so there is little evidence that sellers are blinking even as sales taper off.
  • To sum up: existing home sales are unlikely to pick up unless long-end Treasury rates fall substantially.