EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

MNI: Canada Apr-Aug Budget Deficit Doubles On Spending

CANADA SEPT FLASH RETAIL SALES +0.4%, AUG SALES +0.4%

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, October 25

MNI BRIEF: China's Next NPC Meeting Scheduled For Nov 4 to 8

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY184.2 Bln via OMO Friday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Tuesday

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL OCT INDEX 70.5

MNI: BELGIUM OCT BNB BUSINESS SURVEY -12.8

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US DATA: Mortgage Rate-Constrained Existing Home Sales Sag To Fresh 14-Year Low

US DATA
USEM BulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

Existing home sales continue to slump, falling 1.0% M/M in September to 3.84M SA annualized (vs 3.88M expected). That's down 3.5% from a year earlier, at the lowest rate since October 2010 and well off the torrid pace at the 2021 pandemic high (6.43M).

  • The inventory of unsold homes (1.39M, NSA) has risen to 4.34 months' supply at the current pace of sales - a fresh post-2020 high and well off the 1.7 month low set in December 2021.
  • The slow rise in existing home supply brings the ratio more firmly into the pre-pandemic range (4.2 months from 2015-19), even as sales activity continues to diminish as low locked-in fixed rate mortgages deter movement, and delinquencies remain low.
  • That said, prices continue to hold up: the $404k in September represents a 3.0% Y/Y - so there is little evidence that sellers are blinking even as sales taper off.
  • To sum up: existing home sales are unlikely to pick up unless long-end Treasury rates fall substantially.
161 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Existing home sales continue to slump, falling 1.0% M/M in September to 3.84M SA annualized (vs 3.88M expected). That's down 3.5% from a year earlier, at the lowest rate since October 2010 and well off the torrid pace at the 2021 pandemic high (6.43M).

  • The inventory of unsold homes (1.39M, NSA) has risen to 4.34 months' supply at the current pace of sales - a fresh post-2020 high and well off the 1.7 month low set in December 2021.
  • The slow rise in existing home supply brings the ratio more firmly into the pre-pandemic range (4.2 months from 2015-19), even as sales activity continues to diminish as low locked-in fixed rate mortgages deter movement, and delinquencies remain low.
  • That said, prices continue to hold up: the $404k in September represents a 3.0% Y/Y - so there is little evidence that sellers are blinking even as sales taper off.
  • To sum up: existing home sales are unlikely to pick up unless long-end Treasury rates fall substantially.