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US DATA: NAHB Miss Widens Gulf With Homebuilder Equities

US DATA
  • The NAHB housing market index surprised lower with 39 (cons 43) in August after a downward revised 41 (initial 42) in July. 
  • It’s the fourth consecutive decline for the lowest since December. 
  • There's little sign of the uptick that’s been seen in mortgage applications as mortgage rates have fallen ~50bps over the past month, although that admittedly has mostly been seen in refi activity rather than new purchase applications. 
  • Present sales fell 2pts (44) and prospective buyer traffic fell 2pts (25), whilst expectations of future sales increased 1pt (49). 
  • Regionally, the overall index was driven by a decline in the south (-4pts), by far the largest region for existing home sales, whilst other regions were broadly unchanged on the month.  
  • The decline yet further widens the relative gap with the S&P 500 homebuilder price to book ratio, which at 2.45 is close to multi-decade highs. 

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