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US DATA: Not Many Signs Of Hurricane Disruption In Payrolls Report

US DATA
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  • The household survey’s not a work due to bad weather series jumped to 512k. That’s above the 436k from Beryl in July, and is large for an October, but it’s small compared to the huge 1474k after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017.
  • That aside, there don’t look to be obvious fingerprints from storm disruption in the report.
  • Establishment survey: there was the expected heavy drag from manufacturing on strike activity (-46k) but the largest drag on the month came from “professional & business” (-47k). Hurricanes Harvey and Irma saw heavy impact on leisure sector but accommodation increased 3k after 10k and food & dining places increased 4k after 39k. Construction also still increased 8k after 27k.
  • Average hours worked were higher than expected as they held steady at an upward revised 34.3. They hit 34.2 in July (possibly on Beryl).  They were down in manufacturing (strikes) and flat in services but higher for leisure and healthcare.
  • Household survey: temporary layoffs actually fell -48k in Oct. Instead, permanent layoffs increased 214k for their largest since Feb.
  • On weather impacts, the BLS wrote: “It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey. ”
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  • The household survey’s not a work due to bad weather series jumped to 512k. That’s above the 436k from Beryl in July, and is large for an October, but it’s small compared to the huge 1474k after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017.
  • That aside, there don’t look to be obvious fingerprints from storm disruption in the report.
  • Establishment survey: there was the expected heavy drag from manufacturing on strike activity (-46k) but the largest drag on the month came from “professional & business” (-47k). Hurricanes Harvey and Irma saw heavy impact on leisure sector but accommodation increased 3k after 10k and food & dining places increased 4k after 39k. Construction also still increased 8k after 27k.
  • Average hours worked were higher than expected as they held steady at an upward revised 34.3. They hit 34.2 in July (possibly on Beryl).  They were down in manufacturing (strikes) and flat in services but higher for leisure and healthcare.
  • Household survey: temporary layoffs actually fell -48k in Oct. Instead, permanent layoffs increased 214k for their largest since Feb.
  • On weather impacts, the BLS wrote: “It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey. ”