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US Data: NY Federal Reserve Consumer Expectations Survey

Data for: November 2018
Source: NY Federal Reserve Consumer Expectation Survey
Units are either median percent change or median probability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              1-Yr Pct
        Pct Change         Pct Change         1-Yr Pct Chg         Chg
         1-yr infl          3-yr infl                  Gas        Food
Jun18         2.98               3.00                 4.81        4.43
Jul18         2.98               2.88                 4.61        4.53
Aug18         3.00               3.00                 4.41        4.59
Sep18         3.00               3.00                 4.48        4.48
Oct18         3.00               3.00                 4.54        4.54
Nov18         2.97               2.88                 4.18        4.32
          1-Yr Pct                                            1-Yr Pct
               Chg       1-Yr Pct Chg         1-Yr Pct Chg         Chg
           Medical            College                 Rent        Gold
Jun18         9.63               7.02                 5.67        2.69
Jul18         8.46               7.17                 5.63        2.09
Aug18         8.55               7.16                 5.61        2.20
Sep18         9.20               7.04                 5.55        2.58
Oct18         7.76               5.92                 5.44        2.51
Nov18         9.14               6.25                 5.38        2.21
                                                                  1-yr      1-yr
                                            1-yr Household   Household    Change
        Pct Growth                                            Spending
                In     Pct  Growth In        Income Growth      Growth  In Taxes
                                                                             Pct
       Home Prices           Earnings           Pct Change  Pct Change    Change
Jun18         3.92               2.71                 2.72        3.35      2.21
Jul18         3.73               2.42                 2.78        3.23      2.24
Aug18         3.57               2.54                 2.81        3.15      2.15
Sep18         3.56               2.76                 2.52        2.94      2.45
Oct18         3.26               2.45                 2.91        3.69      2.39
Nov18         3.05               2.02                 2.95        3.49      2.68
       Probability
                Of     Probability Of
            Higher
             Unemp       Higher Stock            1-yr Govt
        Rates 1-yr        Prices 1-yr          Debt Growth
          From Now           From Now           Pct Change
Jun18        34.27              40.42                 6.58
Jul18        34.18              40.28                 6.93
Aug18        35.31              40.03                 7.93
Sep18        34.05              41.63                 7.01
Oct18        35.14              41.59                 6.37
Nov18        35.76              39.82                 7.77
                       Probability Of
                        The Following
                            Occurring
                                                             Change In
               Job          Voluntary          Job Finding        Home
                                                               Next 12
        Separation         Separation          In 3 Months         Mos
Jun18        15.23              21.35                58.61       18.37
Jul18        14.02              23.17                59.79       18.76
Aug18        13.82              20.60                57.84       18.88
Sep18        15.99              23.37                59.29       17.44
Oct18        13.52              20.75                58.69       18.16
Nov18        14.66              22.77                58.59       18.82
       Probability
                Of                          Probability Of
         Unable To
              Make                          Higher Savings
           Minimum
           Payment                     Acct Interest Rates
        Next 3 Mos                           1-yr From Now
Jun18        12.41                                   37.09
Jul18        11.84                                   35.97
Aug18        12.77                                   35.22
Sep18        13.71                                   36.83
Oct18        12.73                                   38.40
Nov18        12.04                                   37.27
                                       Credit Availability
                                        Compared With Year
                                                       Ago
              Much           Somewhat              Equally    Somewhat      Much
            Harder             Harder            Easy/Hard      Easier    Easier
Jun18         6.02              21.94                48.47       20.54      3.04
Jul18         4.66              22.47                49.19       20.37      3.31
Aug18         4.89              23.30                47.71       21.10      2.98
Sep18         4.24              22.66                48.24       21.41      3.44
Oct18         4.60              23.68                45.18       23.34      3.21
Nov18         4.73              24.28                44.95       22.82      3.22
                                       Credit Availability
                                        Seen Year From Now
              Much           Somewhat              Equally    Somewhat      Much
            Harder             Harder            Easy/Hard      Easier    Easier
Jun18         5.50              25.12                47.69       18.56      3.13
Jul18         5.87              24.66                49.82       16.84      2.81
Aug18         4.64              25.84                48.47       18.22      2.83
Sep18         3.98              27.09                47.86       18.48      2.59
Oct18         5.09              25.56                46.78       20.21      2.37
Nov18         5.97              25.37                46.12       19.70      2.84
                                        Household Finances
                                        Compared With Year
                                                       Ago
              Much           Somewhat                About    Somewhat      Much
                                                                          Better
         Worse Off          Worse Off             The Same  Better Off       Off
Jun18         2.17              13.92                48.23       30.83      4.86
Jul18         4.06              12.99                45.96       30.86      6.13
Aug18         1.95              14.77                46.03       31.99      5.26
Sep18         1.68              15.60                47.85       29.32      5.56
Oct18         1.73              15.54                45.58       30.49      6.66
Nov18         1.69              16.53                46.14       29.42      6.23
                                        Household Finances
                                        Seen Year From Now
              Much           Somewhat                About    Somewhat      Much
                                                                          Better
         Worse Off          Worse Off             The Same  Better Off       Off
Jun18         1.50              10.30                45.79       37.07      5.35
Jul18         1.57              10.43                46.64       34.48      6.89
Aug18         0.74              10.22                44.99       36.91      7.14
Sep18         0.50              11.51                48.24       33.10      6.66
Oct18         1.41               9.61                47.44       33.87      7.67
Nov18         1.37              11.17                44.94       35.96      6.57
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDA$,M$U$$$]

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