US Data: NY Federal Reserve Consumer Expectations Survey

Data for: November 2018

Source: NY Federal Reserve Consumer Expectation Survey

Units are either median percent change or median probability

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                              1-Yr Pct

        Pct Change         Pct Change         1-Yr Pct Chg         Chg

         1-yr infl          3-yr infl                  Gas        Food

Jun18         2.98               3.00                 4.81        4.43

Jul18         2.98               2.88                 4.61        4.53

Aug18         3.00               3.00                 4.41        4.59

Sep18         3.00               3.00                 4.48        4.48

Oct18         3.00               3.00                 4.54        4.54

Nov18         2.97               2.88                 4.18        4.32

          1-Yr Pct                                            1-Yr Pct

               Chg       1-Yr Pct Chg         1-Yr Pct Chg         Chg

           Medical            College                 Rent        Gold

Jun18         9.63               7.02                 5.67        2.69

Jul18         8.46               7.17                 5.63        2.09

Aug18         8.55               7.16                 5.61        2.20

Sep18         9.20               7.04                 5.55        2.58

Oct18         7.76               5.92                 5.44        2.51

Nov18         9.14               6.25                 5.38        2.21

                                                                  1-yr      1-yr

                                            1-yr Household   Household    Change

        Pct Growth                                            Spending

                In     Pct  Growth In        Income Growth      Growth  In Taxes

                                                                             Pct

       Home Prices           Earnings           Pct Change  Pct Change    Change

Jun18         3.92               2.71                 2.72        3.35      2.21

Jul18         3.73               2.42                 2.78        3.23      2.24

Aug18         3.57               2.54                 2.81        3.15      2.15

Sep18         3.56               2.76                 2.52        2.94      2.45

Oct18         3.26               2.45                 2.91        3.69      2.39

Nov18         3.05               2.02                 2.95        3.49      2.68

       Probability

                Of     Probability Of

            Higher

             Unemp       Higher Stock            1-yr Govt

        Rates 1-yr        Prices 1-yr          Debt Growth

          From Now           From Now           Pct Change

Jun18        34.27              40.42                 6.58

Jul18        34.18              40.28                 6.93

Aug18        35.31              40.03                 7.93

Sep18        34.05              41.63                 7.01

Oct18        35.14              41.59                 6.37

Nov18        35.76              39.82                 7.77

                       Probability Of

                        The Following

                            Occurring

                                                             Change In

               Job          Voluntary          Job Finding        Home

                                                               Next 12

        Separation         Separation          In 3 Months         Mos

Jun18        15.23              21.35                58.61       18.37

Jul18        14.02              23.17                59.79       18.76

Aug18        13.82              20.60                57.84       18.88

Sep18        15.99              23.37                59.29       17.44

Oct18        13.52              20.75                58.69       18.16

Nov18        14.66              22.77                58.59       18.82

       Probability

                Of                          Probability Of

         Unable To

              Make                          Higher Savings

           Minimum

           Payment                     Acct Interest Rates

        Next 3 Mos                           1-yr From Now

Jun18        12.41                                   37.09

Jul18        11.84                                   35.97

Aug18        12.77                                   35.22

Sep18        13.71                                   36.83

Oct18        12.73                                   38.40

Nov18        12.04                                   37.27

                                       Credit Availability

                                        Compared With Year

                                                       Ago

              Much           Somewhat              Equally    Somewhat      Much

            Harder             Harder            Easy/Hard      Easier    Easier

Jun18         6.02              21.94                48.47       20.54      3.04

Jul18         4.66              22.47                49.19       20.37      3.31

Aug18         4.89              23.30                47.71       21.10      2.98

Sep18         4.24              22.66                48.24       21.41      3.44

Oct18         4.60              23.68                45.18       23.34      3.21

Nov18         4.73              24.28                44.95       22.82      3.22

                                       Credit Availability

                                        Seen Year From Now

              Much           Somewhat              Equally    Somewhat      Much

            Harder             Harder            Easy/Hard      Easier    Easier

Jun18         5.50              25.12                47.69       18.56      3.13

Jul18         5.87              24.66                49.82       16.84      2.81

Aug18         4.64              25.84                48.47       18.22      2.83

Sep18         3.98              27.09                47.86       18.48      2.59

Oct18         5.09              25.56                46.78       20.21      2.37

Nov18         5.97              25.37                46.12       19.70      2.84

                                        Household Finances

                                        Compared With Year

                                                       Ago

              Much           Somewhat                About    Somewhat      Much

                                                                          Better

         Worse Off          Worse Off             The Same  Better Off       Off

Jun18         2.17              13.92                48.23       30.83      4.86

Jul18         4.06              12.99                45.96       30.86      6.13

Aug18         1.95              14.77                46.03       31.99      5.26

Sep18         1.68              15.60                47.85       29.32      5.56

Oct18         1.73              15.54                45.58       30.49      6.66

Nov18         1.69              16.53                46.14       29.42      6.23

                                        Household Finances

                                        Seen Year From Now

              Much           Somewhat                About    Somewhat      Much

                                                                          Better

         Worse Off          Worse Off             The Same  Better Off       Off

Jun18         1.50              10.30                45.79       37.07      5.35

Jul18         1.57              10.43                46.64       34.48      6.89

Aug18         0.74              10.22                44.99       36.91      7.14

Sep18         0.50              11.51                48.24       33.10      6.66

Oct18         1.41               9.61                47.44       33.87      7.67

Nov18         1.37              11.17                44.94       35.96      6.57

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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