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US DATA: Philly Fed Non-Mfg A Mixed Bag But Some Notable Weak Spots

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The Philly Fed non-mfg index bounced back from a surprisingly sharp -25.1 in Aug to -6.1 in Sept, slightly better than the -9.3 expected.
  • We had noted after last month’s release that there was an unusually large disconnect between firm’s perceptions of their own activity versus how they saw regional activity (the latter being the headline figure on screens).
  • This mostly corrected this month, primarily from the regional side being less weak but also with firms’ own activity not being quite at optimistic as in Aug, with 1.5 vs 8.3 prior.
  • The details for the overall survey are decidedly mixed. New orders slid from -0.3 to -17.8 for their lowest since Apr 2023 (only lower in Apr/May 2020 for a series starting in 2011) but employment components improved (full-time 0.0 after -14.9, part-time 16.1 after -0.5 for its highest since Mar 2022).
  • Price components slowed, with prices paid at 19.5 after 30.0 for the lowest since Oct 2020 and prices received at 6.2 after 9.8 although that’s only the lowest since May. 
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  • The Philly Fed non-mfg index bounced back from a surprisingly sharp -25.1 in Aug to -6.1 in Sept, slightly better than the -9.3 expected.
  • We had noted after last month’s release that there was an unusually large disconnect between firm’s perceptions of their own activity versus how they saw regional activity (the latter being the headline figure on screens).
  • This mostly corrected this month, primarily from the regional side being less weak but also with firms’ own activity not being quite at optimistic as in Aug, with 1.5 vs 8.3 prior.
  • The details for the overall survey are decidedly mixed. New orders slid from -0.3 to -17.8 for their lowest since Apr 2023 (only lower in Apr/May 2020 for a series starting in 2011) but employment components improved (full-time 0.0 after -14.9, part-time 16.1 after -0.5 for its highest since Mar 2022).
  • Price components slowed, with prices paid at 19.5 after 30.0 for the lowest since Oct 2020 and prices received at 6.2 after 9.8 although that’s only the lowest since May.