MNI BRIEF: China Passenger Car Sales Up In November Y/Y

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 4.55% In November

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US DATA: PPI Details Lean Hawkish On Net But Tracking Uncertain

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Some of the main PPI categories that feed into core PCE calculations saw an acceleration in M/M terms in September, adding 0.06pps to core PCE vs an upward revised 0.03pp in Aug (had been 0.00pp).
  • The variety of health care services that we track for it were overall slightly cooler than in Aug (adding 0.03pp vs 0.04pps last month), which is of note considering potential greater stickiness in this category. Instead, the main change came from airline fares (which using the total category for a crude seasonally adjusted approximation added +0.02pps after -0.01pps).
  • Airfares increased 1.5% M/M after -1.0% M/M (or 0.5% after -1.9% M/M NSA for domestic), fading the heavy 3.2% M/M and 3.9% M/M increases seen in the CPI series over Sep and Aug respectively.
  • That could imply some mild upside surprise to core PCE M/M estimates that post-CPI had looked to be ~0.23% M/M on average
  • Note that upward revisions to August could mean a more notable upside surprise for Y/Y figures though, potentially seeing some upside risk to the recently downward revised median FOMC forecast of 2.6% for core PCE inflation in 4Q24 (lowered from 2.8% in the June SEP).
  • Exact implications will depend on what analysts had assumed for individual PPI categories, but it looks likely that core PCE will still come in below the 0.31% M/M seen for core CPI yesterday.
225 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Some of the main PPI categories that feed into core PCE calculations saw an acceleration in M/M terms in September, adding 0.06pps to core PCE vs an upward revised 0.03pp in Aug (had been 0.00pp).
  • The variety of health care services that we track for it were overall slightly cooler than in Aug (adding 0.03pp vs 0.04pps last month), which is of note considering potential greater stickiness in this category. Instead, the main change came from airline fares (which using the total category for a crude seasonally adjusted approximation added +0.02pps after -0.01pps).
  • Airfares increased 1.5% M/M after -1.0% M/M (or 0.5% after -1.9% M/M NSA for domestic), fading the heavy 3.2% M/M and 3.9% M/M increases seen in the CPI series over Sep and Aug respectively.
  • That could imply some mild upside surprise to core PCE M/M estimates that post-CPI had looked to be ~0.23% M/M on average
  • Note that upward revisions to August could mean a more notable upside surprise for Y/Y figures though, potentially seeing some upside risk to the recently downward revised median FOMC forecast of 2.6% for core PCE inflation in 4Q24 (lowered from 2.8% in the June SEP).
  • Exact implications will depend on what analysts had assumed for individual PPI categories, but it looks likely that core PCE will still come in below the 0.31% M/M seen for core CPI yesterday.