MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 14

MNI BRIEF: China Sep M2 Rises To Four-Month High

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Grow Steady; Exports +4.3% YTD

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Facing Pressure In Q4

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY16.0 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY16.3 TRLN: PBOC

CHINA SEP EXPORTS +2.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI BRIEF: China Sep CPI Slows To 0.4% Y/Y On Base Effects

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.20B BSL

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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US DATA: PPI Details Lean Hawkish On Net But Tracking Uncertain

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Some of the main PPI categories that feed into core PCE calculations saw an acceleration in M/M terms in September, adding 0.06pps to core PCE vs an upward revised 0.03pp in Aug (had been 0.00pp).
  • The variety of health care services that we track for it were overall slightly cooler than in Aug (adding 0.03pp vs 0.04pps last month), which is of note considering potential greater stickiness in this category. Instead, the main change came from airline fares (which using the total category for a crude seasonally adjusted approximation added +0.02pps after -0.01pps).
  • Airfares increased 1.5% M/M after -1.0% M/M (or 0.5% after -1.9% M/M NSA for domestic), fading the heavy 3.2% M/M and 3.9% M/M increases seen in the CPI series over Sep and Aug respectively.
  • That could imply some mild upside surprise to core PCE M/M estimates that post-CPI had looked to be ~0.23% M/M on average
  • Note that upward revisions to August could mean a more notable upside surprise for Y/Y figures though, potentially seeing some upside risk to the recently downward revised median FOMC forecast of 2.6% for core PCE inflation in 4Q24 (lowered from 2.8% in the June SEP).
  • Exact implications will depend on what analysts had assumed for individual PPI categories, but it looks likely that core PCE will still come in below the 0.31% M/M seen for core CPI yesterday.
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  • Some of the main PPI categories that feed into core PCE calculations saw an acceleration in M/M terms in September, adding 0.06pps to core PCE vs an upward revised 0.03pp in Aug (had been 0.00pp).
  • The variety of health care services that we track for it were overall slightly cooler than in Aug (adding 0.03pp vs 0.04pps last month), which is of note considering potential greater stickiness in this category. Instead, the main change came from airline fares (which using the total category for a crude seasonally adjusted approximation added +0.02pps after -0.01pps).
  • Airfares increased 1.5% M/M after -1.0% M/M (or 0.5% after -1.9% M/M NSA for domestic), fading the heavy 3.2% M/M and 3.9% M/M increases seen in the CPI series over Sep and Aug respectively.
  • That could imply some mild upside surprise to core PCE M/M estimates that post-CPI had looked to be ~0.23% M/M on average
  • Note that upward revisions to August could mean a more notable upside surprise for Y/Y figures though, potentially seeing some upside risk to the recently downward revised median FOMC forecast of 2.6% for core PCE inflation in 4Q24 (lowered from 2.8% in the June SEP).
  • Exact implications will depend on what analysts had assumed for individual PPI categories, but it looks likely that core PCE will still come in below the 0.31% M/M seen for core CPI yesterday.