US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Sep-19   Aug-19   Jul-19   Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                        204/213  211/213  208/219  219/215  228/220  197/207

wk 2                                 221/214  216/219  222/218  212/225  193/201

wk 3                                 211/215  207/213  217/219  212/221  230/206

wk 4                                 216/215  217/212  229/222  218/217  230/212

wk 5                                 219/217  211/213  222/223

Nonfarm Payrolls                       +130k    +164k    +193k     +62k    +216k

Private Payrolls                        +96k    +148k    +179k     +81k    +195k

Mfg Payroll                              +3k     +16k     +12k      +2k      +3k

Unemployment                            3.7%     3.7%     3.7%     3.6%     3.6%

Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.3     34.4     34.4     34.4

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.6     40.4     40.7     40.6     40.6

Aggr Hours Index                       +0.4%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   +0.5%    -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%    -0.2%

                                                +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%

Final Demand PPI                       +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%

excl food & energy                     +0.3%    -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%

excl food, energy, trade               +0.4%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.4%

CPI                                    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%

excl food & energy                     +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%

Import Prices                          -0.5%    +0.2%    -0.9%     Flat    +0.2%

non-petro import prices                  0.0     Flat    -0.4%    -0.3%    -0.5%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                          45.1     47.9     53.2     50.0

PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%

PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.5%

Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.6%    +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%

Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$200.3  -$119.7    -$8.5  -$207.8

Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$23.3   +$13.8   +$17.1   +$17.5

CB Consumer Confidence                 135.1    135.8    124.3    131.3    129.2

Consumer Sentiment                      89.8     98.4     98.2    100.0     97.2

Retail Sales                            +0.4    +0.8%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.4%

excl motor vehicles                      0.0    +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%

Personal Income                                 +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%

Personal Spending                               +0.6%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%

ISM Mfg Index                           49.1     51.2     51.7     52.1     52.8

ISM Nonmfg NMI                                   53.7     55.1     56.9     55.5

MNI Chicago Report                      50.4     44.4     49.7     54.2     52.6

Phila Fed Mfg Index                     16.8     21.8      0.3     16.6      8.5

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                   7.5     21.4      8.2     17.3     21.0

Empire State Index              2.0      4.8      4.3     -8.6     17.8     10.1

KC Fed Mfg Index                          -6       -1        0        4        5

Richmond Fed Mfg Index                     1      -12        2        7        9

Dallas Fed Mfg Index                    17.9     -6.3    -12.1     -5.3      2.0

Markit Mfg Index                        49.9     50.4     50.6     50.5     52.4

Markit Services Index                   53.0     53.0     51.5     50.9     53.0

Ind Production                         +0.6%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.6%

Capacity Util                          77.9%    77.5%    77.8%    77.8%    77.7%

Factory Orders                                   +1.4    +0.6%    -1.3%    -1.2%

Factory Orders ex

transport                                        +0.3    +0.1%    +0.0%    +0.2%

Durables                                        +2.0%    +1.8%    -2.3%    -2.8%

Durables ex transport                           -0.4%    +0.8%    +0.4%    -0.2%

Nondurables                                     +0.8%    -0.7%    -0.3%    +0.4%

Mfg Shipments                                    -0.2     +0.1    +0.1%    -0.6%

Business Inventories                             +0.4     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%

Factory                                          +0.2    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Retail                                                   -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.6%

Wholesale                                        +0.2     Flat    +0.4%    +0.8%

Housing Starts (mn)                             1.191    1.241    1.264    1.270

Building Permits (mn)                           1.336    1.232    1.299    1.290

NAHB Index                                         65       64       66       63

New Home Sales (k)                                635      646      604      658

Existing Homes (mn)                              5.42     5.29     5.36     5.21

Pending Home Sales Index                        105.6    108.3    105.4    104.3

Construct Spending                                0.1     -0.7    -0.5%    +0.9%

Private Residential                               0.6     -0.5     Flat    +0.9%

Trade Balance (bn)                             -$54.0   -$55.2   -$55.3   -$51.2

Exports (bn)                                   $207.4   $206.3   $210.7   $206.4

Imports (bn)                                   $261.4   $261.5   $266.0   $257.6

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$72.5   -$75.1   -$75.9   -$71.7

Leading Index                                   +0.5%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%

                                                         Q2-19

GDP (chain-wt)                                           +2.0%

Final Sales                                              +3.0%

Chain prices                                             +2.4%

Current-dollar                                           +4.6%

                                                         Q2-19

Nonfarm Productivity                                     +2.3%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                 +2.6%

                                                         Q2-19

ECI (q/q)                                                +0.6%

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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