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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(H1) Fragile Outlook

US TSYS SUMMARY

Curve Lower, Flatter as Yields Reverse Off Cycle Highs

US TSY/RECAP

Yield Curve Update

STIR FUTURES

Eurodollars Futures Snapshot

USDCAD TECHS

Consolidating

AUDUSD TECHS

Probes Key Support

Trending Top 5

US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Sep 30/17:06 EST Sep 30
     
                             Sep-19   Aug-19   Jul-19   Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        204/213  211/213  208/219  219/215  228/220  197/207
wk 2                        208/206  221/214  216/219  222/218  212/225  193/201
wk 3                                 211/215  207/213  217/219  212/221  230/206
wk 4                                 216/215  217/212  229/222  218/217  230/212
wk 5                                 219/217  211/213  222/223
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +130k    +164k    +193k     +62k    +216k
Private Payrolls                        +96k    +148k    +179k     +81k    +195k
Mfg Payroll                              +3k     +16k     +12k      +2k      +3k
Unemployment                            3.7%     3.7%     3.7%     3.6%     3.6%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.3     34.4     34.4     34.4
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.6     40.4     40.7     40.6     40.6
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.4%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   +0.5%    -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%    -0.2%
                                                +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%
excl food & energy                     +0.3%    -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.4%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.4%
CPI                                    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%
excl food & energy                     +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%
Import Prices                          -0.5%    +0.2%    -0.9%     Flat    +0.2%
non-petro import prices                  0.0     Flat    -0.4%    -0.3%    -0.5%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 46.0     45.1     47.9     53.2     50.0
PCE Price Index M/M                     0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                     1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.5%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                1.8%    +1.6%    +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%
Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$200.3  -$119.7    -$8.5  -$207.8
Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$23.3   +$13.8   +$17.1   +$17.5
CB Consumer Confidence        125.1    135.1    135.8    124.3    131.3    129.2
Consumer Sentiment                      89.8     98.4     98.2    100.0     97.2
Retail Sales                            +0.4    +0.8%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.4%
excl motor vehicles                      0.0    +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%
Personal Income                        +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%
Personal Spending                               +0.6%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%
ISM Mfg Index                           49.1     51.2     51.7     52.1     52.8
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          56.4     53.7     55.1     56.9     55.5
MNI Chicago Report             47.1     50.4     44.4     49.7     54.2     52.6
Phila Fed Mfg Index            12.0     16.8     21.8      0.3     16.6      8.5
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index          9.5      7.5     21.4      8.2     17.3     21.0
Empire State Index              2.0      4.8      4.3     -8.6     17.8     10.1
KC Fed Mfg Index                 -2       -6       -1        0        4        5
Richmond Fed Mfg Index           -9        1      -12        2        7        9
Dallas Fed Mfg Index            1.5      2.7     -6.3    -12.1     -5.3      2.0
Markit Mfg Index               51.0     50.3     50.4     50.6     50.5     52.4
Markit Services Index          50.9     50.7     53.0     51.5     50.9     53.0
Ind Production                         +0.6%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.6%
Capacity Util                          77.9%    77.5%    77.8%    77.8%    77.7%
Factory Orders                                   +1.4    +0.6%    -1.3%    -1.2%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                        +0.3    +0.1%    +0.0%    +0.2%
Durables                               +0.2%    +2.0%    +1.8%    -2.3%    -2.8%
Durables ex transport                  +0.5%    -0.4%    +0.8%    +0.4%    -0.2%
Nondurables                                     +0.8%    -0.7%    -0.3%    +0.4%
Mfg Shipments                                    -0.2     +0.1    +0.1%    -0.6%
Business Inventories                    +0.4     +0.4     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%
Factory                                          +0.2    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Retail                                   0.8             -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.6%
Wholesale                                        +0.2     Flat    +0.4%    +0.8%
Housing Starts (mn)                    1.364    1.191    1.241    1.264    1.270
Building Permits (mn)                  1.425    1.336    1.232    1.299    1.290
NAHB Index                                66       65       64       66       63
New Home Sales (k)                       713      635      646      604      658
Existing Homes (mn)                     5.49     5.42     5.29     5.36     5.21
Pending Home Sales Index                        105.6    108.3    105.4    104.3
Construct Spending                                0.1     -0.7    -0.5%    +0.9%
Private Residential                               0.6     -0.5     Flat    +0.9%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$54.0   -$55.2   -$55.3   -$51.2
Exports (bn)                                   $207.4   $206.3   $210.7   $206.4
Imports (bn)                                   $261.4   $261.5   $266.0   $257.6
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$72.5   -$75.1   -$75.9   -$71.7
Leading Index                                   +0.5%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%
                                                         Q2-19
GDP (chain-wt)                                           +2.0%
Final Sales                                              +3.0%
Chain prices                                             +2.4%
Current-dollar                                           +4.6%
                                                         Q2-19
Nonfarm Productivity                                     +2.3%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                 +2.6%
                                                         Q2-19
ECI (q/q)                                                +0.6%
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]