US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

              Oct-1

                  9  Sep-19  Aug-19   Jul-19   Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19   Mar-19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UI

Claims/4wk

avg

                     204/21  211/21

wk 1                      3       3  208/219  219/215  228/220  197/207  224/220

                     208/20  221/21

wk 2                      6       4  216/219  222/218  212/225  193/201  216/220

                     219/21  211/21

wk 3                      3       5  207/213  217/219  212/221  230/206  212/217

                     220/21  216/21

wk 4                      0       5  217/212  229/222  218/217  230/212  204/214

                             219/21

wk 5                              7  211/213  222/223

Nonfarm

Payrolls              +136k   +130k    +164k    +193k     +62k    +216k    +153k

Private

Payrolls              +114k    +96k    +148k    +179k     +81k    +195k    +153k

Mfg Payroll             -2k     +3k     +16k     +12k      +2k      +3k      -3k

Unemployment           3.5%    3.7%     3.7%     3.7%     3.6%     3.6%     3.8%

Avg Wkly

Hours                  34.4    34.4     34.3     34.4     34.4     34.4     34.5

Avg Hours -

Mfg                    40.5    40.5     40.4     40.7     40.6     40.6     40.7

Aggr Hours

Index                  0.0%   +0.4%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.5%

Aggr Hrs

Index - Mfg            0.0%   +0.5%    -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%

Avg Hourly

Earnings              +0.4%   +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%

Final Demand

PPI                   -0.3%   +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%

excl food &

energy                -0.3%   +0.3%    -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%

excl food,

energy,

trade                   0.0   +0.4%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.4%     Flat

CPI                   +0.1%   +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%

excl food &

energy                +0.2%   +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%

Import

Prices                +0.2%   -0.5%    +0.2%    -0.9%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.6%

non-petro

import

prices                          0.0     Flat    -0.4%    -0.3%    -0.5%     Flat

ISM Mfg

Prices Pd

Index                  49.7    46.0     45.1     47.9     53.2     50.0     54.3

PCE Price

Index M/M                      0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%

PCE Price

Index Y/Y                      1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.5%    +1.4%

Core PCE

Price Index

M/M                            0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Core PCE

Price Index

Y/Y                            1.8%    +1.6%    +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%

Treasury

Budget (bn)                          -$200.3  -$119.7    -$8.5  -$207.8  +$160.3

Consumer

Credit (bn)                  +$17.9   +$23.3   +$13.8   +$17.1   +$17.5   +$11.0

CB Consumer

Confidence            125.1   135.1    135.8    124.3    131.3    129.2    124.2

Consumer

Sentiment                      89.8     98.4     98.2    100.0     97.2     98.5

Retail Sales          -0.3%    +0.4    +0.8%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.4%    +1.8%

excl motor

vehicles                        0.0    +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.4%

Personal

Income                        +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%

Personal

Spending                               +0.6%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.0%

ISM Mfg

Index                  47.8    49.1     51.2     51.7     52.1     52.8     55.3

ISM Nonmfg

NMI                            56.4     53.7     55.1     56.9     55.5     56.1

MNI Chicago

Report                 47.1    50.4     44.4     49.7     54.2     52.6     58.7

Phila Fed

Mfg Index              12.0    16.8     21.8      0.3     16.6      8.5     13.7

Phila Fed

Nonmfg Index            9.5     7.5     21.4      8.2     17.3     21.0     21.7

Empire State

Index           4.0     2.0     4.8      4.3     -8.6     17.8     10.1      3.7

KC Fed Mfg

Index                    -2      -6       -1        0        4        5       10

Richmond Fed

Mfg Index                -9       1      -12        2        7        9       10

Dallas Fed

Mfg Index               1.5     2.7     -6.3    -12.1     -5.3      2.0      6.9

Markit Mfg

Index                  51.1    50.3     50.4     50.6     50.5     52.4     52.4

Markit

Services

Index                  50.9    50.7     53.0     51.5     50.9     53.0     55.3

Ind

Production                    +0.6%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.6%    +0.1%

Capacity

Util                          77.9%    77.5%    77.8%    77.8%    77.7%    78.4%

Factory

Orders                        -0.1%     +1.4    +0.6%    -1.3%    -1.2%    +1.3%

Factory

Orders ex

transport                               +0.3    +0.1%    +0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Durables                      +0.2%    +2.0%    +1.8%    -2.3%    -2.8%    +1.7%

Durables ex

transport                     +0.5%    -0.4%    +0.8%    +0.4%    -0.2%    -0.5%

Nondurables                            +0.8%    -0.7%    -0.3%    +0.4%    +0.9%

Mfg

Shipments                               -0.2     +0.1    +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%

Business

Inventories             0.0    +0.4     +0.4     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%     Flat

Factory                                 +0.2    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%

Retail                 -0.1     0.8             -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.6%    -0.3%

Wholesale                      +0.2     +0.2     Flat    +0.4%    +0.8%     Flat

Housing

Starts (mn)                   1.364    1.191    1.241    1.264    1.270    1.199

Building

Permits (mn)                  1.425    1.336    1.232    1.299    1.290    1.288

NAHB Index               68      66       65       64       66       63       62

New Home

Sales (k)                       713      635      646      604      658      705

Existing

Homes (mn)                     5.49     5.42     5.29     5.36     5.21     5.21

Pending Home

Sales Index                            105.6    108.3    105.4    104.3    105.9

Construct

Spending                        0.1      0.1     -0.7    -0.5%    +0.9%    +0.1%

Private

Residential                     0.9      0.6     -0.5     Flat    +0.9%    -0.8%

Trade

Balance (bn)                 -$54.9   -$54.0   -$55.2   -$55.3   -$51.2   -$51.9

Exports (bn)                 $207.9   $207.4   $206.3   $210.7   $206.4   $211.4

Imports (bn)                 $262.8   $261.4   $261.5   $266.0   $257.6   $263.3

Goods Only,

BOP (bn)                     -$74.4   -$72.5   -$75.1   -$75.9   -$71.7   -$72.7

Leading

Index                         +0.0%    +0.5%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%

                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19

GDP

(chain-wt)                                      +2.0%                      +3.1%

Final Sales                                     +3.0%                      +2.6%

Chain prices                                    +2.4%                      +1.1%

Current-doll

ar                                              +4.6%                      +3.9%

                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19

Nonfarm

Productivity                                    +2.3%                      +3.5%

Nonfarm Unit

Labor Costs                                     +2.6%                      +5.5%

                                                Q2-19                      Q1-19

ECI (q/q)                                       +0.6%                      +0.7%

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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