US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

^{US: Recap of

Economic

Indicators: May

2013 - October

2013>}

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                   Sep-19   Aug-19   Jul-19   Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19   Mar-19

UI Claims/4wk

avg

wk 1              204/213  211/213  208/219  219/215  228/220  197/207  224/220

wk 2              208/206  221/214  216/219  222/218  212/225  193/201  216/220

wk 3                       211/215  207/213  217/219  212/221  230/206  212/217

wk 4                       216/215  217/212  229/222  218/217  230/212  204/214

wk 5                       219/217  211/213  222/223

Nonfarm Payrolls             +130k    +164k    +193k     +62k    +216k    +153k

Private Payrolls              +96k    +148k    +179k     +81k    +195k    +153k

Mfg Payroll                    +3k     +16k     +12k      +2k      +3k      -3k

Unemployment                  3.7%     3.7%     3.7%     3.6%     3.6%     3.8%

Avg Wkly Hours                34.4     34.3     34.4     34.4     34.4     34.5

Avg Hours - Mfg               40.6     40.4     40.7     40.6     40.6     40.7

Aggr Hours Index             +0.4%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.5%

Aggr Hrs Index -

Mfg                          +0.5%    -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%

                                      +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%

Final Demand PPI             +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%

excl food &

energy                       +0.3%    -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%

excl food,

energy, trade                +0.4%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.4%     Flat

CPI                          +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%

excl food &

energy                       +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%

Import Prices                -0.5%    +0.2%    -0.9%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.6%

non-petro import

prices                         0.0     Flat    -0.4%    -0.3%    -0.5%     Flat

ISM Mfg Prices

Pd Index                               45.1     47.9     53.2     50.0     54.3

PCE Price Index

M/M                                   +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%

PCE Price Index

Y/Y                                   +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.5%    +1.4%

Core PCE Price

Index M/M                             +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Core PCE Price

Index Y/Y                             +1.6%    +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%

Treasury Budget

(bn)                                -$200.3  -$119.7    -$8.5  -$207.8  +$160.3

Consumer Credit

(bn)                                 +$23.3   +$13.8   +$17.1   +$17.5   +$11.0

CB Consumer

Confidence          125.1    135.1    135.8    124.3    131.3    129.2    124.2

Consumer

Sentiment                     89.8     98.4     98.2    100.0     97.2     98.5

Retail Sales                  +0.4    +0.8%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.4%    +1.8%

excl motor

vehicles                       0.0    +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.4%

Personal Income                       +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%

Personal

Spending                              +0.6%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.0%

ISM Mfg Index                 49.1     51.2     51.7     52.1     52.8     55.3

ISM Nonmfg NMI                         53.7     55.1     56.9     55.5     56.1

MNI Chicago

Report                        50.4     44.4     49.7     54.2     52.6     58.7

Phila Fed Mfg

Index                12.0     16.8     21.8      0.3     16.6      8.5     13.7

Phila Fed Nonmfg

Index                          7.5     21.4      8.2     17.3     21.0     21.7

Empire State

Index                 2.0      4.8      4.3     -8.6     17.8     10.1      3.7

KC Fed Mfg Index                -6       -1        0        4        5       10

Richmond Fed Mfg

Index                  -9        1      -12        2        7        9       10

Dallas Fed Mfg

Index                 1.5      2.7     -6.3    -12.1     -5.3      2.0      6.9

Markit Mfg Index     51.0     50.3     50.4     50.6     50.5     52.4     52.4

Markit Services

Index                50.9     50.7     53.0     51.5     50.9     53.0     55.3

Ind Production               +0.6%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.6%    +0.1%

Capacity Util                77.9%    77.5%    77.8%    77.8%    77.7%    78.4%

Factory Orders                         +1.4    +0.6%    -1.3%    -1.2%    +1.3%

Factory Orders

ex transport                           +0.3    +0.1%    +0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Durables                              +2.0%    +1.8%    -2.3%    -2.8%    +1.7%

Durables ex

transport                             -0.4%    +0.8%    +0.4%    -0.2%    -0.5%

Nondurables                           +0.8%    -0.7%    -0.3%    +0.4%    +0.9%

Mfg Shipments                          -0.2     +0.1    +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%

Business

Inventories                            +0.4     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%     Flat

Factory                                +0.2    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%

Retail                                         -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.6%    -0.3%

Wholesale                              +0.2     Flat    +0.4%    +0.8%     Flat

Housing Starts

(mn)                         1.364    1.191    1.241    1.264    1.270    1.199

Building Permits

(mn)                         1.425    1.336    1.232    1.299    1.290    1.288

NAHB Index                      66       65       64       66       63       62

New Home Sales

(k)                            713      635      646      604      658      705

Existing Homes

(mn)                          5.49     5.42     5.29     5.36     5.21     5.21

Pending Home

Sales Index                           105.6    108.3    105.4    104.3    105.9

Construct

Spending                                0.1     -0.7    -0.5%    +0.9%    +0.1%

Private

Residential                             0.6     -0.5     Flat    +0.9%    -0.8%

Trade Balance

(bn)                                 -$54.0   -$55.2   -$55.3   -$51.2   -$51.9

Exports (bn)                         $207.4   $206.3   $210.7   $206.4   $211.4

Imports (bn)                         $261.4   $261.5   $266.0   $257.6   $263.3

Goods Only, BOP

(bn)                                 -$72.5   -$75.1   -$75.9   -$71.7   -$72.7

Leading Index                         +0.5%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%

                                               Q2-19                      Q1-19

GDP (chain-wt)                                 +2.0%                      +3.1%

Final Sales                                    +3.0%                      +2.6%

Chain prices                                   +2.4%                      +1.1%

Current-dollar                                 +4.6%                      +3.9%

                                               Q2-19                      Q1-19

Nonfarm

Productivity                                   +2.3%                      +3.5%

Nonfarm Unit

Labor Costs                                    +2.6%                      +5.5%

                                               Q2-19                      Q1-19

ECI (q/q)                                      +0.6%                      +0.7%

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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