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(K1) Bull Rally Pauses

US DATA

MNI Chicago Business Barometer Dropped in Feb

AUD

Westpac Issue New AUD/USD Trade Recommendation

US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

     
^{US: Recap of
Economic
Indicators: May
2013 - October
2013>}
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   Sep-19   Aug-19   Jul-19   Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19   Mar-19
UI Claims/4wk
avg
wk 1              204/213  211/213  208/219  219/215  228/220  197/207  224/220
wk 2              208/206  221/214  216/219  222/218  212/225  193/201  216/220
wk 3                       211/215  207/213  217/219  212/221  230/206  212/217
wk 4                       216/215  217/212  229/222  218/217  230/212  204/214
wk 5                       219/217  211/213  222/223
Nonfarm Payrolls             +130k    +164k    +193k     +62k    +216k    +153k
Private Payrolls              +96k    +148k    +179k     +81k    +195k    +153k
Mfg Payroll                    +3k     +16k     +12k      +2k      +3k      -3k
Unemployment                  3.7%     3.7%     3.7%     3.6%     3.6%     3.8%
Avg Wkly Hours                34.4     34.3     34.4     34.4     34.4     34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg               40.6     40.4     40.7     40.6     40.6     40.7
Aggr Hours Index             +0.4%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.5%
Aggr Hrs Index -
Mfg                          +0.5%    -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%
                                      +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Final Demand PPI             +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%
excl food &
energy                       +0.3%    -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%
excl food,
energy, trade                +0.4%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.4%     Flat
CPI                          +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%
excl food &
energy                       +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%
Import Prices                -0.5%    +0.2%    -0.9%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.6%
non-petro import
prices                         0.0     Flat    -0.4%    -0.3%    -0.5%     Flat
ISM Mfg Prices
Pd Index                               45.1     47.9     53.2     50.0     54.3
PCE Price Index
M/M                                   +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%
PCE Price Index
Y/Y                                   +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.4%    +1.5%    +1.4%
Core PCE Price
Index M/M                             +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Core PCE Price
Index Y/Y                             +1.6%    +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%
Treasury Budget
(bn)                                -$200.3  -$119.7    -$8.5  -$207.8  +$160.3
Consumer Credit
(bn)                                 +$23.3   +$13.8   +$17.1   +$17.5   +$11.0
CB Consumer
Confidence          125.1    135.1    135.8    124.3    131.3    129.2    124.2
Consumer
Sentiment                     89.8     98.4     98.2    100.0     97.2     98.5
Retail Sales                  +0.4    +0.8%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.4%    +1.8%
excl motor
vehicles                       0.0    +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.4%
Personal Income                       +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%
Personal
Spending                              +0.6%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +1.0%
ISM Mfg Index                 49.1     51.2     51.7     52.1     52.8     55.3
ISM Nonmfg NMI                         53.7     55.1     56.9     55.5     56.1
MNI Chicago
Report                        50.4     44.4     49.7     54.2     52.6     58.7
Phila Fed Mfg
Index                12.0     16.8     21.8      0.3     16.6      8.5     13.7
Phila Fed Nonmfg
Index                          7.5     21.4      8.2     17.3     21.0     21.7
Empire State
Index                 2.0      4.8      4.3     -8.6     17.8     10.1      3.7
KC Fed Mfg Index                -6       -1        0        4        5       10
Richmond Fed Mfg
Index                  -9        1      -12        2        7        9       10
Dallas Fed Mfg
Index                 1.5      2.7     -6.3    -12.1     -5.3      2.0      6.9
Markit Mfg Index     51.0     50.3     50.4     50.6     50.5     52.4     52.4
Markit Services
Index                50.9     50.7     53.0     51.5     50.9     53.0     55.3
Ind Production               +0.6%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.6%    +0.1%
Capacity Util                77.9%    77.5%    77.8%    77.8%    77.7%    78.4%
Factory Orders                         +1.4    +0.6%    -1.3%    -1.2%    +1.3%
Factory Orders
ex transport                           +0.3    +0.1%    +0.0%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Durables                              +2.0%    +1.8%    -2.3%    -2.8%    +1.7%
Durables ex
transport                             -0.4%    +0.8%    +0.4%    -0.2%    -0.5%
Nondurables                           +0.8%    -0.7%    -0.3%    +0.4%    +0.9%
Mfg Shipments                          -0.2     +0.1    +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%
Business
Inventories                            +0.4     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%     Flat
Factory                                +0.2    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%
Retail                                         -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.6%    -0.3%
Wholesale                              +0.2     Flat    +0.4%    +0.8%     Flat
Housing Starts
(mn)                         1.364    1.191    1.241    1.264    1.270    1.199
Building Permits
(mn)                         1.425    1.336    1.232    1.299    1.290    1.288
NAHB Index                      66       65       64       66       63       62
New Home Sales
(k)                            713      635      646      604      658      705
Existing Homes
(mn)                          5.49     5.42     5.29     5.36     5.21     5.21
Pending Home
Sales Index                           105.6    108.3    105.4    104.3    105.9
Construct
Spending                                0.1     -0.7    -0.5%    +0.9%    +0.1%
Private
Residential                             0.6     -0.5     Flat    +0.9%    -0.8%
Trade Balance
(bn)                                 -$54.0   -$55.2   -$55.3   -$51.2   -$51.9
Exports (bn)                         $207.4   $206.3   $210.7   $206.4   $211.4
Imports (bn)                         $261.4   $261.5   $266.0   $257.6   $263.3
Goods Only, BOP
(bn)                                 -$72.5   -$75.1   -$75.9   -$71.7   -$72.7
Leading Index                         +0.5%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%
                                               Q2-19                      Q1-19
GDP (chain-wt)                                 +2.0%                      +3.1%
Final Sales                                    +3.0%                      +2.6%
Chain prices                                   +2.4%                      +1.1%
Current-dollar                                 +4.6%                      +3.9%
                                               Q2-19                      Q1-19
Nonfarm
Productivity                                   +2.3%                      +3.5%
Nonfarm Unit
Labor Costs                                    +2.6%                      +5.5%
                                               Q2-19                      Q1-19
ECI (q/q)                                      +0.6%                      +0.7%
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com
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