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US DATA: Regional Fed Mfg Surveys Imply Upside Risk To Tomorrow’s ISM

US DATA
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  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is last of the five regional Fed surveys for September, coming in line after what have been some mixed outturns relative to expectations (see comparison below).
  • Released mid-month, the Empire and Philly surveys showed some improvement with both in positive territory, but that’s given way to a continuation of softer readings across the Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas Fed regions.
  • Taken together, the five surveys point to some upside to tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing print (seen at 47.6 in September after 47.2). That’s in contrast to the flash PMI, which whilst now at similar levels to the ISM with 47.0 has seen a more notable loss of momentum recently from 51.6 in June.
  • Empire: 11.5 (cons -4.0) after -4.7
  • Philly: 1.7 (cons 0.0) after -7.0
  • Richmond: -21 (cons -12) after -19
  • Kansas: -8 (cons -5) after -3
  • Dallas: -9.0 (cons -10.3) after -9.7
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  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is last of the five regional Fed surveys for September, coming in line after what have been some mixed outturns relative to expectations (see comparison below).
  • Released mid-month, the Empire and Philly surveys showed some improvement with both in positive territory, but that’s given way to a continuation of softer readings across the Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas Fed regions.
  • Taken together, the five surveys point to some upside to tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing print (seen at 47.6 in September after 47.2). That’s in contrast to the flash PMI, which whilst now at similar levels to the ISM with 47.0 has seen a more notable loss of momentum recently from 51.6 in June.
  • Empire: 11.5 (cons -4.0) after -4.7
  • Philly: 1.7 (cons 0.0) after -7.0
  • Richmond: -21 (cons -12) after -19
  • Kansas: -8 (cons -5) after -3
  • Dallas: -9.0 (cons -10.3) after -9.7