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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker restarted today after a lengthy hiatus triggered by a change in Census Bureau methodology starting with the April 2024 data. Having tested the data for 4 months, the Atlanta Fed researchers "are confident that the WGT will continue to be a reliable measure of wage growth for the labor market."
- The headline tracker (3M moving avg of median hourly wage growth) showed that July posted the joint-slowest rise since December 2021 at 4.7% (equal to March 2024), well down from the 5.3% in each of the previous 3 months.
- Job switchers' wage growth eased 0.5pp to 5.0%, lowest since August 2021, while for job stayers it fell 0.7pp to 4.5%, joint-lowest since December 2021. That kept the premium for switchers at around the same levels seen over the past year, vs the large 2-3pp premia seen when the job market was at its tightest in 2022-23.
- The return of the Atlanta Fed tracker is especially welcome as the Fed looks to start an easing cycle in September, with its focus firmly on labor market data developments. The moderation in the Atlanta tracker collaborates other data seen in the past few months.
- Per Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole last week, "It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions."
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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