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US DATA: State Labor Data Offer Arguably Hawkish Takeaways [1/2]

US DATA
  • The state household survey data showed another decline in the share of states that have triggered the Sahm Rule threshold, down to 30% in July from 34% in June and 42% in May. 
  • There are issues with looking at this metric beyond a national level, not least as different states receive differing levels of immigration with differing impacts on labor supply, but it nevertheless receives attention.  
  • You can see how this mostly labor supply driven increase in the unemployment rate has differed to prior recessions in the chart below. 

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