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US DATA: Surprisingly Healthy Initial Claims As Various Distortions Fade

US DATA
USEM BulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Initial jobless claims were notably lower than expected for a second week running, at 227k (sa, cons 242k) in the week to Oct 19 after a marginally upward revised 242k (initial 241k) held onto much of last week’s surprise lower.
  • It has been a volatile few weeks for initial claims, with a recent low of 219k for Sep 21 before jumping to 260k for Oct 5. The four-week average meanwhile climbed further to 239k (+2k) for the highest since early August and before that Aug 2023.
  • The six states impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton saw cumulative claims of 31.7k (nsa), down from the 34.0k and 36.1k of previous weeks vs the 20-25k more typically seen at this time of year. That’s impressive considering this latest week appeared likely to see the greatest Milton impact as it came towards the end of the prior week’s survey period.
  • Other relative improvements came from a further unwinding of what are seen as autos-related shutdowns in Michigan (back to 6.5k after 8.3k and 16.2k previously) and slightly less impact from Boeing strikes (Washington & Oregon saw claims of 11.5k vs 12.4k the previous week). 
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  • Initial jobless claims were notably lower than expected for a second week running, at 227k (sa, cons 242k) in the week to Oct 19 after a marginally upward revised 242k (initial 241k) held onto much of last week’s surprise lower.
  • It has been a volatile few weeks for initial claims, with a recent low of 219k for Sep 21 before jumping to 260k for Oct 5. The four-week average meanwhile climbed further to 239k (+2k) for the highest since early August and before that Aug 2023.
  • The six states impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton saw cumulative claims of 31.7k (nsa), down from the 34.0k and 36.1k of previous weeks vs the 20-25k more typically seen at this time of year. That’s impressive considering this latest week appeared likely to see the greatest Milton impact as it came towards the end of the prior week’s survey period.
  • Other relative improvements came from a further unwinding of what are seen as autos-related shutdowns in Michigan (back to 6.5k after 8.3k and 16.2k previously) and slightly less impact from Boeing strikes (Washington & Oregon saw claims of 11.5k vs 12.4k the previous week).