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US DATA: Trade Data See Capital Goods Imports Rally Stall

US DATA
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The advance goods trade balance saw a smaller than expected deficit in October at -$99.1bln (cons $-102.7bln) after an only marginally revised $108.7bln in Sep. It sees some softer domestic demand implications after a strong run but note some accounting issues on the exports side. 

  • It sees the three-month deficit tighten to an estimated 4.1% of GDP (4.2% Sep), stalling its gradual widening seen since the beginning of 2024.
  • Both imports (-5.4% M/M vs +4.0% Sep) and exports (-3.2% M/M vs -2.0% Sep) saw clear declines in October.
  • The pronounced imports decline was broad-based, with all major categories decreasing.
  • Most notably was the first monthly decline in capital goods imports since May, with a heavy 8.3% M/M decline to leave values below June levels (the volumes data will follow in the final release). That puts a dent into the previous strong domestic demand / onshoring narrative with November data watched to see whether this was due to disruption from adverse weather conditions and possibly strike activity.
  • Exports declines were relatively broad-based, with most major categories declining. However, note the below from the Census Bureau on accounting issues that have shown up by "other" exports surging 68% M/M (full release here).
  • "Due to the Canada Border Services Agency introducing a new accounting system (CARM) on October 21, 2024, importers in Canada have experienced delays in filing shipments. As a result of the United States\Canada data exchange, U.S. exports of goods to Canada are impacted in the September and October 2024 Advance Economic Indicator and U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services reports. A dollar estimate of the backlog will be included in the late receipt estimate for the month and following our customary practice for late receipt estimates, will be included in the Other Goods end use category as well as the total exports and exports to Canada. This estimate will be replaced with the actual transactions reported by Harmonized System Classification with our Annual
    Revisions in June 2025."

 

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The advance goods trade balance saw a smaller than expected deficit in October at -$99.1bln (cons $-102.7bln) after an only marginally revised $108.7bln in Sep. It sees some softer domestic demand implications after a strong run but note some accounting issues on the exports side. 

  • It sees the three-month deficit tighten to an estimated 4.1% of GDP (4.2% Sep), stalling its gradual widening seen since the beginning of 2024.
  • Both imports (-5.4% M/M vs +4.0% Sep) and exports (-3.2% M/M vs -2.0% Sep) saw clear declines in October.
  • The pronounced imports decline was broad-based, with all major categories decreasing.
  • Most notably was the first monthly decline in capital goods imports since May, with a heavy 8.3% M/M decline to leave values below June levels (the volumes data will follow in the final release). That puts a dent into the previous strong domestic demand / onshoring narrative with November data watched to see whether this was due to disruption from adverse weather conditions and possibly strike activity.
  • Exports declines were relatively broad-based, with most major categories declining. However, note the below from the Census Bureau on accounting issues that have shown up by "other" exports surging 68% M/M (full release here).
  • "Due to the Canada Border Services Agency introducing a new accounting system (CARM) on October 21, 2024, importers in Canada have experienced delays in filing shipments. As a result of the United States\Canada data exchange, U.S. exports of goods to Canada are impacted in the September and October 2024 Advance Economic Indicator and U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services reports. A dollar estimate of the backlog will be included in the late receipt estimate for the month and following our customary practice for late receipt estimates, will be included in the Other Goods end use category as well as the total exports and exports to Canada. This estimate will be replaced with the actual transactions reported by Harmonized System Classification with our Annual
    Revisions in June 2025."