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US EIA Gas Storage Draw of 84bcf Estimated: BNEF

NATGAS

The US EIA gas storage data due for release at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) is expected to show a withdrawal of -84bcf for the week ending Feb 23 according to BNEF.

A Bloomberg survey average suggests a draw of -87bcf on the week compared to the seasonal normal draw of -173bcf.

  • The BNEF samples-based model predicts a withdrawal of -82bcf while the weather-based supply and demand model predicts a withdrawal of -84bcf.
  • Total storage was last week reported at 2,470bcf after a smaller than average -60bcf draw on the week. US storage was 451bcf higher than the seasonal average of 2,019bcf and 168bcf higher than the previous 5-year high.
  • Mild weather in February has led to 625HDD in the month versus a 10-year average of 797 and March is expected to see 528HDD versus a 10-year average of 607.
  • Consumption is forecast to rise by 3.2bcf/d on the week to 102.3bcf/d with an increase in residential/commercial and power generation demand more than offsetting lower industrial demand. Supply is estimated to have dropped by 0.7bcf/d to 90.3bcf/d.
  • The early view for the week ending Mar 1 is a withdrawal of -30bcf.
    • US Natgas APR 24 down -0.7% at 1.87$/mmbtu
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