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US EIA Stocks Preview: Small Crude Build and Refinery Recovery Expected

OIL

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 GMT) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to show a build of +1.51mbbl for the week ending Feb. 2, according to a Bloomberg survey. US crude stocks last week built with refinery runs showing a further decline, following on from the significant fall the previous week. Production recovered back up to 13mbpd while exports also declined on the week. Cushing stocks fell to the lowest levels since November. The SPR is slowly refilling with about 10.6mbbls added since July.
  • Refinery utilization last week fell to the lowest since Dec 2022, down at 82.9%. However, it is expected to recover slightly by 0.62% this week. The recovery from January disruption has been slower than expected ahead of the expected heavy maintenance season, with several unplanned outages as plants have restarted.
  • Total US gasoline stocks are expected to build again this week by +0.84mbbl and distillates to draw by -2.15mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Distillates inventories last week fell more than expected due to a drop in production. Lower refinery runs and lower imports offset softer implied demand. Four-week implied demand increased but remains at the lower end of the previous five-year range. US manufacturers are nearing the end of a prolonged and shallow slowdown which could create a boost for distillate consumption later in 2024, according to Reuters.
  • Gasoline stocks built last week, boosted by an increase in production and despite gains in implied demand during the week. Four-week implied demand was holding just below the previous five-year average but could rise again in data this week. US gasoline demand jumped 4.6% last week from the prior week to 8.378mbpd and was 4.0% above the average of the last four weeks, according to GasBuddy data.
  • The API data released last night showed a small crude build of 0.674mbbl, with a build of 0.492mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a large build of +3.65mbbl while distillates stocks fell by -3.70mbbl.
Energy BulletsCommoditiesUS
Energy BulletsCommoditiesUS

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