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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates:
Betting Market Probabilities:
- After coming close to a dead heat, betting markets have swung back towards Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Biden's implied probability of becoming president stands at 53.6%, from a recent low of 49.5% on Sep 2. President Donald Trump's probability of winning stands at 44.8% from a high of 48.8% on Sep 2.
Electoral College Projections:
- 270ToWin figures changed from polling projections to a consensus projection. The consensus total gives Joe Biden a total of 278 electoral college votes without any toss-up states.
Nationwide Polling:
- 14 polls since last update with all but one showing Biden leading. Largest lead for Biden in that period was 11 points with Data for Progress on September 15 (53%/42%). Trump's sole lead came in a Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports poll finished on 15 Sep, where Trump led Biden 47% to 46%.
Senate Polling:
- South Carolina's US senate race added to the Senate Polling chartpack as Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison narrows the gap to long-serving incumbent Republican Senator Lindsay Graham. In the three most recent polls one has shown Graham leading, the other Harrison and the third a tie.
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, MNI
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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