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EU, France Ease Up On Vaccine IP After US States Support

by Tom Lake

Latest Updates

Electoral College Projections:

  • US News & World Report moves Arizona (11) and Nebraska's second congressional district from toss-up to lean Democratic, while Maine's second congressional district is moved from lean Republican to toss-up.
  • RCP moves New Hampshire (4) from toss-up to lean Democratic.

Nationwide Polling:

  • Fifteen polls since last update and all show Biden leading. Largest Biden lead came in a poll from Long Island University\Insider NJ on Sep 26, with Biden on 48% and Trump on 30%. This low score for Trump is an extreme outlier. Closest poll came from Harvard-Harris on Sep 24, with Trump on 45% and Biden on 47%.

Swing State Polling:

  • Two most recent Georgia polls from Quinnipiac and Civiqs on Sep 27 and 29 both show Biden leading 50% to 47%. Lead within MoE, but first consecutive poll leads for Biden since late August.
  • New Hampshire swings strongly away from Trump in two Sep 25 polls, trailing Biden 52%-44% with YouGov/UMass Lowell and 56%-42% with Pulse/Center for American Greatness.

Senate Polling:

  • Dem Barbara Bollier records first polling lead in Kansas race, leading Rep Roger Marshall 45%-43% in a GBAO Strategies (D) poll on Sep 27.
  • Very tight race in South Carolina, with two latest polls showing a 2pt lead for Dem Jamie Harrison (45%-43% Brilliant Corners Research, D) and 1pt lead for Rep incumbent Lindsey Graham (45%-44%, YouGov).
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections

Source: 270toWin, The Economist,, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progr

Full article PDF attached below:

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