Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates
Electoral College Projections:
- US News & World Report moves Arizona (11) and Nebraska's second congressional district from toss-up to lean Democratic, while Maine's second congressional district is moved from lean Republican to toss-up.
- RCP moves New Hampshire (4) from toss-up to lean Democratic.
Nationwide Polling:
- Fifteen polls since last update and all show Biden leading. Largest Biden lead came in a poll from Long Island University\Insider NJ on Sep 26, with Biden on 48% and Trump on 30%. This low score for Trump is an extreme outlier. Closest poll came from Harvard-Harris on Sep 24, with Trump on 45% and Biden on 47%.
Swing State Polling:
- Two most recent Georgia polls from Quinnipiac and Civiqs on Sep 27 and 29 both show Biden leading 50% to 47%. Lead within MoE, but first consecutive poll leads for Biden since late August.
- New Hampshire swings strongly away from Trump in two Sep 25 polls, trailing Biden 52%-44% with YouGov/UMass Lowell and 56%-42% with Pulse/Center for American Greatness.
Senate Polling:
- Dem Barbara Bollier records first polling lead in Kansas race, leading Rep Roger Marshall 45%-43% in a GBAO Strategies (D) poll on Sep 27.
- Very tight race in South Carolina, with two latest polls showing a 2pt lead for Dem Jamie Harrison (45%-43% Brilliant Corners Research, D) and 1pt lead for Rep incumbent Lindsey Graham (45%-44%, YouGov).
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progr
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok