Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- Political RiskPolitical Risk
Intelligence on key political and geopolitical events around the world.
- About Us
by Tom Lake
Electoral College Projections:
- US News & World Report moves Arizona (11) and Nebraska's second congressional district from toss-up to lean Democratic, while Maine's second congressional district is moved from lean Republican to toss-up.
- RCP moves New Hampshire (4) from toss-up to lean Democratic.
- Fifteen polls since last update and all show Biden leading. Largest Biden lead came in a poll from Long Island University\Insider NJ on Sep 26, with Biden on 48% and Trump on 30%. This low score for Trump is an extreme outlier. Closest poll came from Harvard-Harris on Sep 24, with Trump on 45% and Biden on 47%.
Swing State Polling:
- Two most recent Georgia polls from Quinnipiac and Civiqs on Sep 27 and 29 both show Biden leading 50% to 47%. Lead within MoE, but first consecutive poll leads for Biden since late August.
- New Hampshire swings strongly away from Trump in two Sep 25 polls, trailing Biden 52%-44% with YouGov/UMass Lowell and 56%-42% with Pulse/Center for American Greatness.
- Dem Barbara Bollier records first polling lead in Kansas race, leading Rep Roger Marshall 45%-43% in a GBAO Strategies (D) poll on Sep 27.
- Very tight race in South Carolina, with two latest polls showing a 2pt lead for Dem Jamie Harrison (45%-43% Brilliant Corners Research, D) and 1pt lead for Rep incumbent Lindsey Graham (45%-44%, YouGov).
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progr
Full article PDF attached below: