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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates:
Betting Market:
- Implied probability of a Biden win rises from 50.6% at last update on September 4 to 53.9% at the time of writing. In the same period, implied probability of a Trump win has fallen from 47.7% to 44.4%.
Electoral College Projections:
- PluralVote: 'Lean Biden' up to 122 EC votes from 92 previously, giving Biden a total of 334 including safe, likely, and leaning Biden states.
- JHK Forecasts: 16 votes move from the 'likely' to 'lean Biden' category, while 'lean Trump' gains 16 votes from 'toss-up.
Nationwide Polling:
- No updates in nationwide polling due to Labor Day weekend.
Swing State Polling:
- Latest poll from Minnesota by PPP gives Biden a 52% to 44% lead, and is the fourth poll in a row giving the Democrat an advantage over Donald Trump.
- Rasmussen gives Joe Biden a 4% lead over Trump in Ohio, leading 49% to 45% among likely voters in a September 2 poll. Ohio is a key state for Trump, having won it by 6% over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
- Trump leading by just 2% (49%-47%) in Texas according to a September 2 poll from the University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News poll.
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progr
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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