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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US ELECTIONS
The Associated Press has called the presidential election for former President Donald Trump. The call on the presidency comes after AP called Wisconsin for Trump, putting him on 277 electoral college votes, over the 270 threshold. The AP call is viewed as the 'gold standard' of election declarations in the US.
- A second term in the Oval Office for Trump comes alongside the Republicans retaking control of the Senate with at least 51 seats with seven seats still to be called. Focus now turns to the House and whether a the GOP can achieve a clean sweep.
- After pre-election expectations of one of the closest contests in history, the relatively swift calling of the election (notably in comparison to 2020) has come as something of a surprise to many observers. Rather than Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris splitting the sun belt and rust belt states between them, Trump looks on course to win all seven states highlighted as battleground states before the vote.
- Concerns of civil unrest around the election do not look set to be borne out, with the efficient and transparent count in many states limiting the prospect of accusations of malign interference.
- DDHQ gives a 57.9% probability that the Republicans win a majority in the House, but with the caveat that the advantage could be the most slender 218-217 member margin. If this scenario comes to fruition it could make policy enactment difficult despite the GOP holding the presidency and both chambers of Congress. This is given the experience over the past two years of recalcitrant GOP Reps. voting against Republican speakers on key legislation.
Chart 1. Electoral College Hexagram
Source: AP, MNI, mapchart.net
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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