US ELECTIONS: Republicans On Track To Secure Crucial Senate Buffer

Decision Desk HQ has projected that Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has won re-election in Nevada. The call means Republicans are likely to secure 53 seats in the upper chamber. 

• A three-seat buffer will have major implications for President-Elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda. Democrats will not be able to lean on two moderate Republican senators, Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), to block Republican legislation moved under budget reconciliation - as Senators Joe Manchin (I-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema did during the first half of Biden's term when Democrats had unified control of Congress.
• The three-seat buffer may also be critical for Republican chances of retaining the Senate at the 2026 midterm elections, when they will be defending competitive seats in Maine and North Carolina.
• Outstanding Senate races remain to be called in Pennsylvania and Arizona, with the Democrat incumbent Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) trailing in Pennsylvania   
• The final result in the House of Representatives may not be known for days or weeks, due to California's slow count and any required recounts, but Republicans appear certain to retain control, with a similar razor-thin majority. DDHQ gives the GOP a roughly 90% implied probability of retaining the House. 

Figure 1: House of Representatives Forecast, %Implied Probability