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US Existing Homes See Continued Supply Constraints

DATA REACT
  • Inventories fell to a new series low since 1999 of 1.8 months in Dec from 2.1 in Nov. Highly seasonal, it’s below the 1.9 in Dec’20/Jan’21 and compares with 3-4 months in the five Decembers prior to the pandemic.
  • The separate seasonally adjusted series solely for single family homes (i.e. ex condos) saw it unchanged at 2.1, close to the low of 2.0 in Feb’21.
  • The continuation of limited supply could further support price growth after rising 15.8% Y/Y and add to CPI shelter, albeit against a growing headwind from rising mortgage rates.
  • There was no obvious reaction in breakevens on the release, but the 5Y has continued to rise and is up 3bp on the day at 2.82%.
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